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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

SD said:
Not much choice but to squeeze this thing northward into the Carolinas at this point
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Really the gefs and para have been showing this scenario for days it seems. Theres a pretty decent consensus this makes a turn up the coast. Let's hope they are correct on strength.
 
smast16 said:
It's going to hug the coast or be out to sea. Not going to the Gulf. If it was going into the Gulf, @SD and @RainlessSnowless & Grumpy would have a change at some of that eastern side rains. And we know that aint happening.

So Eastern seaboard it is, Nice and dry.
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This look would be ok for me. It would transition to a left of track heavy rain event with the trough sitting to its west.
 
iGrey_X said:
I’m not really thinking that Euro run is even close to correct honestly. This thing is continuing its westward motion and not gaining latitude at all. I’d still say the eastern gulf is the best bet right now.
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Yeah I agree I don’t think it’s gonna be close. It’s already past for this thing to start curving. And the fact it’s moving at 23 mph due Westin will get far west quick. I think this it’s the eastern gulf that could be in play and also this storm stays west for a longer period of time it may be even south of Cuba to the south and then turn and that would be bad considering the water is ripe and has no interaction with land and straight into the warm waters in the eastern gulf . Then it’s game on. The weather channel has that scenario also?‍♂️
 
I just see this as an eastern gulf storm that likely strengthens a little more than guidance is depicting and the Florida panhandle, southern and central Georgia, and the western Carolinas getting a whole lot of rain.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Seems like everything Forces the energy on the northern side of DR. It’s gonna have to start moving north quick for that to happen or am I seeing things
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honestly I think we are at the point that it better start moving due north or NNW now or those runs just aren’t going to happen.This thing is moving west and isn’t slowing down at all.
 
iGrey_X said:
honestly I think we are at the point that it better start moving due north or NNW now or those runs just aren’t going to happen.This thing is moving west and isn’t slowing down at all.
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I’m thinking it sneaks in between Haiti and Cuba.


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iGrey_X said:
honestly I think we are at the point that it better start moving due north or NNW now or those runs just aren’t going to happen.This thing is moving west and isn’t slowing down at all.
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The forward speed is something to keep in mind. I don’t recall ever seeing a storm moving that rapidly just take a sharp turn like what the models are trying to do.
 
I wish I remembered the name and year but there was a system that was interacting with the big islands and a blob of convection remained north offshore. The center jumped and relocated by a decent distance.

Theres no defined center yet unless recon finds one now. This thing can do anything. It can reform south of the islands or north or just never close off. This setup, track and intensity is a good one to throw some curveballs.

I'll sit back watch the trends both visually and modeled and wait and see what he does.
 
Convection is dying off again. It really doesn’t want to form. Even if it closes off I see nothing that’s gonna pull it dramatically north that quick. Even the northern blob of convection is dying
 
IMO the northern half of this system is where the energy seems to be shifting and where models try to get something going. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen but that is probably the area it will form an LLC if it does.
 
Forward speed is way too fast for this thing to just start moving a potential closed circulation. Obviously it technically has not happened yet so we can not say forsure what it will do but the main convection is to the south, it is traveling fast, and it is traveling due west based on satellite. I just do not see this going OTS and if it does remain in the atlantic I think somewhere from Lower SC to maybe Wilmington would be in line to be hit.
 
iGRXY said:
Forward speed is way too fast for this thing to just start moving a potential closed circulation. Obviously it technically has not happened yet so we can not say forsure what it will do but the main convection is to the south, it is traveling fast, and it is traveling due west based on satellite. I just do not see this going OTS and if it does remain in the atlantic I think somewhere from Lower SC to maybe Wilmington would be in line to be hit.
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I think it will remain loose meaning any "landfall" location wouldn't be important and may not even have much wx nearby. Most of rain probably well to the north. Main effect of this expected to be some areas of heavy rain but maybe not a large area of heavy rain over land as much of the heavy rain could stay out to sea.
 
Seems to be a spin up around 18N and 64W. This thing is still strung out but that northern end has my interest.
 
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