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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

My concern for this system is slowly growing from meh to hmmmmm........being in eastern NC ( 100 miles due west of Hatteras) some of these tracks are interesting....with a large wind field even a center miss 50-100 miles west would make for a windy wet day.....
 
Downeastnc said:
My concern for this system is slowly growing from meh to hmmmmm........being in eastern NC ( 100 miles due west of Hatteras) some of these tracks are interesting....with a large wind field even a center miss 50-100 miles west would make for a windy wet day.....
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I dont like being in the bullseye 24 hours out let alone 7 days.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This system is already over 1 degree south of its forecast point by the NHC. Lol
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Looks like its trying to consolidate a bit around 15N 60W though its still a big mess....the overall look is better though its trying not to be a messy pile of ----....also I hate when they move the floater....
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
How do you figure? Half the tracks don’t even develop
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For those two that lean into the Gulf, if we keep seeing that trend, we can see a really strong storm as it would have longer time in the gulf with westward trends. Riding the islands would also cause it to stay weak and not get lifted north until the Gulf when it stops riding constant mountains. Yes I'm sort of going on 2 members but it's not a good look to see if the other day nothing was hitting land. For all we know tomorrow we could see most of the members end in the gulf and blow up, or all of them ride Florida. Regardless, it's a complex situation and needs to be watched.
 
ForsythSnow said:
For those two that lean into the Gulf, if we keep seeing that trend, we can see a really strong storm as it would have longer time in the gulf with westward trends. Riding the islands would also cause it to stay weak and not get lifted north until the Gulf when it stops riding constant mountains. Yes I'm sort of going on 2 members but it's not a good look to see if the other day nothing was hitting land. For all we know tomorrow we could see most of the members end in the gulf and blow up, or all of them ride Florida. Regardless, it's a complex situation and needs to be watched.
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Gotcha. Yeah I’m so anxious to see where it’s at come Thursday morning
 
One thing to note is these things always trend west 90% of the time. Even the GFS and GEFS are borderline close to a landfall and we still have many days to go. But the best bet looks like a storm track very similar to Irma. And that whole Hispaniola destroying any tropical storm is overrated to me. It will weaken a hurricane (more so than a tropical storm) but if you think that It will just dissipate, you’ll be wrong most of the time. The waters of the Bahamas and the waters between Florida and Cuba are the richest energy source for tropical systems. This thing is far far far from even having the final solution.
 
8cc91f554d17a88f907d7adfc478d013.jpg



Chris justice is thinking something like this. But he is kinda leaning towards a Gulf storm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Anyway the NHC is hinting that the shear may be overdone near Florida

Assuming the system remains
intact after emerging off the coast of Hispaniola, the slow track
over the very warm waters of the Straits of Florida would result in
more strengthening, assuming the system doesn't interact with the
Cuban landmass.
Although the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity
guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of
20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the
Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced
shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's
impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations.

025453_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
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I think this thing could very well end up in the center of the gulf before it said and done
 
accu35 said:
I think this thing could very well end up in the center of the gulf before it said and done
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Its so strung out and i think this boils down to where a center develops. Southern end and it's over the islands and weaker and into the gom if it's more northerly less interaction and a stronger system.

It's a hot mess right now and I'm leaning towards a weaker system.

One other thing that cant be ruled out is disrupted convection due to the mountains of the bigger islands and a center reformation north. We've seen this before.
 
first sign of a little strengthening winds are up and pressure is down 1 mb(recon is out right now)

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 60.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

The GEFS went back east but again without a center this is guesswork

AL09_2020072900_GEFS_large.png

HWRF is into eastern Florida as a weak cane

hwrf_satIR_09L_17.png
 
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Brent said:
first sign of a little strengthening winds are up and pressure is down 1 mb(recon is out right now)

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 60.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

The GEFS went back east but again without a center this is guesswork

View attachment 45323

HWRF is into eastern Florida as a weak cane

View attachment 45324
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Hopefully the HWRF, as is often the case, is on crack. Meanwhile, a much better model, the King, has only a weak low in the SE GOM:

B3F11B22-3449-4DE6-BA4A-1BCE89F4CDC7.png
 
Brent said:
Yeah who knows at this point

I don't think we'll know much til it clears Hispaniola
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Without a true center to track its gonna be hard for the models to truly grasp this. I was concerned when a bunch of the ensembles ran it up th coast but my concern has waned for the time being.
 
How far west will the Euro go lol

Even if it is very weak(I'm not really sure I believe it would be this weak in the Gulf of all places but it's gotta survive Hispaniola first)

ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_6.png
 
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