Tropical Hurricane Isaias

[Cadi40]

Is this shaping up to be more of an NC threat or less of one?

 

[Webberweather53]

Here's a few tweets & tweet threads that might explain what's happening with Isaias atm:







Recommend looking into this thread from a few days ago! There's a condensed explanation & corresponding literature at the end of this one. The creator of the Weathernerds site has actually done a lot of work on this very topic.

 

[Webberweather53]

Is this shaping up to be more of an NC threat or less of one?

Now that both the deep-layer ridge to the north of Isaias and Isaias itself are looking more impressive, I'd wager the threat has unfortunately increased a lot.

 

[BHS1975]

The 0z models should have the G-IV data.


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[Cadi40]

Now that both the deep-layer ridge to the north of Isaias and Isaias itself are looking more impressive, I'd wager the threat has unfortunately increased a lot.

Are you expecting a Florida landfall? A landfall in Florida would likely mean a weaker storm for NC.

 

[BHS1975]

Hot towers going up. With those SSTs it’s like throwing gas on a wet pile of wood to get it burning.


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[WeatherNC]

Hot towers going up. With those SSTs it’s like throwing gas on a wet pile of wood to get it burning.


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Oceanic heat content is a function of depth, forward speed plays a secondary roll but the waters ivo Bahamas are somewhat shallow.

 

[Webberweather53]

Are you expecting a Florida landfall? A landfall in Florida would likely mean a weaker storm for NC.

A stronger Isaias w/ a deeper warm core is going to be steered further north by the upper level trough to its NW.

 

[Snowfan]

Recon data finds 67 knot SFMR winds.

054
URNT15 KNHC 312316
AF305 0909A ISAIAS HDOB 24 20200731
230700 2309N 07615W 8432 01528 0044 +188 +098 053052 053 051 004 00
230730 2308N 07614W 8434 01522 0042 +186 +097 049048 052 050 006 02
230800 2307N 07613W 8434 01522 0046 +177 +096 048047 051 054 007 00
230830 2306N 07611W 8428 01523 0046 +168 +096 051053 055 053 012 00
230900 2306N 07610W 8447 01502 0039 +177 +094 052058 062 059 014 00
230930 2305N 07609W 8431 01519 0046 +166 +090 051056 062 060 013 00
231000 2304N 07608W 8425 01527 0047 +168 +087 049056 059 056 007 00
231030 2303N 07606W 8435 01516 0046 +167 +084 051058 060 052 001 00
231100 2302N 07605W 8425 01519 0043 +164 +082 051053 056 052 001 00
231130 2301N 07604W 8434 01505 0040 +157 +083 052056 059 054 018 00
231200 2300N 07603W 8426 01502 0031 +152 +084 055060 062 053 021 00
231230 2259N 07601W 8439 01484 0022 +155 +085 050054 060 055 058 00
231300 2258N 07600W 8416 01500 0018 +154 +088 044058 062 064 031 03
231330 2257N 07559W 8445 01460 9999 +162 +094 058063 070 064 027 00
231400 2257N 07558W 8436 01461 9982 +170 +100 056051 058 067 014 00
231430 2256N 07556W 8432 01450 9967 +173 +106 049044 051 073 022 03
231500 2255N 07555W 8436 01437 9950 +173 +112 046038 044 073 023 03
231530 2254N 07553W 8425 01432 9923 +195 +116 045032 036 049 002 00
231600 2253N 07552W 8432 01416 9911 +200 +119 050025 029 061 008 03
231630 2252N 07551W 8434 01405 9903 +197 +123 054016 021 027 000 00

 

[GaWx]

HH GEFS: implies mean track near the coast

 

[GaWx]

 

[iGrey_X]

Even with the hurricane being stronger I just don’t see that ridge allowing it to get pushed East. I think we may end up having a strong hurricane that is getting pushed into the coast.

 

[Downeastnc]

A stronger Isaias w/ a deeper warm core is going to be steered further north by the upper level trough to its NW.

Looks like the outflow is actually improving on the S and W side a bit.....if it can make the turn and survive the next 24-36 hrs and come out of it still a decent cane then NC is probably looking at a legit chance of a landfalling cane on a track that would bring the center in well inland along the I95 to Hwy 17 corridor....

 

[Downeastnc]

Closed off eye latest VDM

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)

 

[Webberweather53]

Closed off eye latest VDM

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)

Yikes.

 

[Brent]

Yup

Last night when it blew up it had no eye

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Meteorologist1999]

HURRICANE UPDATE!!

 

[Downeastnc]

Yikes.

if it fills in the SW quad and has a good Dmax period then game on.....my question for you is given the current setup/environment do you think its more likely that the storm tries to stay steady state and expand the CDO/winds or will it stay small and just try to bomb out some....

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Now that both the deep-layer ridge to the north of Isaias and Isaias itself are looking more impressive, I'd wager the threat has unfortunately increased a lot.

How about for eastern SC?