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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

It seems the storm gulped a bit of dry air in the wee hours. It also looks like D-min is helping the storm to mix it out. A big convective burst has gone up right over the center.
 
jP39PUM.gif
 
Drop in the "eye" got 978mb with a 20kt wind, so about 976mb atm.

The biggest hurdle to short term strengthening is that very large and broad wind field on its eastern side. Gonna be hard to tighten that up.

Edit: I'm definitely getting vibes of a peak intensity and look of Ike/Gustav in the GOM. A large lumbering Cat 2 or Cat 3 but never can tighten it all up.
 
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SEC officials, Alabama and Georgia are proceeding as if Saturday’s football game between the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs will kick off as scheduled at 6:30 CT in Tuscaloosa, while monitoring developments with Hurricane Isaias in case any late changes need to be made.

The storm was upgraded to a hurricane on Thursday morning and is expected to make landfall along the Alabama Gulf Coast Friday night. But updated forecasts say the speed of the storm will likely take it past Tuscaloosa, which is about 200 miles inland, by Saturday evening.

The storm itself still looks dangerous for the Gulf Coast, but its recent increase in speed makes it more likely it will be clear of Tuscaloosa by kickoff.

The most concern for the game would be if the storm were to slow down, but there isn’t much chance of that anymore, according to Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

“It looks like if anything it would be a hair faster,” Merrill said on Wednesday evening.

That also could mean slightly more severe impacts on the Tuscaloosa area, just earlier in the day.

“While the weather looks like it’s going to improve in the evening Saturday, there will be quite a bit of rain, some power outages, and the potential for tornadoes,” Merrill said.

And even if the worst of the storm avoids Tuscaloosa, current projections make the game conditions less than ideal. There could still be rain, plus winds of around 30 mph, with gusts potential double that.

Moving to Sunday afternoon is an option, and Georgia has done that before. Ten years ago, its game at South Carolina was moved from Saturday night to Sunday at 2:30 p.m. because of Hurricane Matthew. Officials made the decision on Thursday of game week after the storm strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane. And while Columbia, S.C., is about three hours inland, the need for state troopers to help with hurricane-related security and relief also figured into the decision.

As for other potential sites: Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium, site of the SEC championship, is hosting an MLS match Saturday.

Could the game be moved to Athens? If it’s out of the storm path, that’s always an option. It would also mean Alabama would only have three home SEC games this year.


—————————

One person in comments below suggested this:

Alabama is scheduled to play Texas A&M on October 24. Both teams have a bye on October 31. Move the Bama v. A&M game to the 31st and move Bama v. Georgia to the 24th. Everyone keeps their home games that way, avoids serious weather this weekend, and the game doesn't get moved out of Tuscaloosa or to Friday or Sunday.
 
GaWx said:
SEC officials, Alabama and Georgia are proceeding as if Saturday’s football game between the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs will kick off as scheduled at 6:30 CT in Tuscaloosa, while monitoring developments with Hurricane Isaias in case any late changes need to be made.

The storm was upgraded to a hurricane on Thursday morning and is expected to make landfall along the Alabama Gulf Coast Friday night. But updated forecasts say the speed of the storm will likely take it past Tuscaloosa, which is about 200 miles inland, by Saturday evening.

The storm itself still looks dangerous for the Gulf Coast, but its recent increase in speed makes it more likely it will be clear of Tuscaloosa by kickoff.

The most concern for the game would be if the storm were to slow down, but there isn’t much chance of that anymore, according to Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

“It looks like if anything it would be a hair faster,” Merrill said on Wednesday evening.

That also could mean slightly more severe impacts on the Tuscaloosa area, just earlier in the day.

“While the weather looks like it’s going to improve in the evening Saturday, there will be quite a bit of rain, some power outages, and the potential for tornadoes,” Merrill said.

And even if the worst of the storm avoids Tuscaloosa, current projections make the game conditions less than ideal. There could still be rain, plus winds of around 30 mph, with gusts potential double that.

Moving to Sunday afternoon is an option, and Georgia has done that before. Ten years ago, its game at South Carolina was moved from Saturday night to Sunday at 2:30 p.m. because of Hurricane Matthew. Officials made the decision on Thursday of game week after the storm strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane. And while Columbia, S.C., is about three hours inland, the need for state troopers to help with hurricane-related security and relief also figured into the decision.

As for other potential sites: Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium, site of the SEC championship, is hosting an MLS match Saturday.

Could the game be moved to Athens? If it’s out of the storm path, that’s always an option. It would also mean Alabama would only have three home SEC games this year.


—————————

One person in comments below suggested this:

Alabama is scheduled to play Texas A&M on October 24. Both teams have a bye on October 31. Move the Bama v. A&M game to the 31st and move Bama v. Georgia to the 24th. Everyone keeps their home games that way, avoids serious weather this weekend, and the game doesn't get moved out of Tuscaloosa or to Friday or Sunday.
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So because the storm center will pass by that evening, we are going to put everyone in harms way prior to the game. You can’t even make this up.
 
I have to believe that with such a strong dry punch of air/interaction with the upper low that heavy training cells will be interesting to watch in Georgia. One would thinknthe models are underestimating totals in ga
 
J.C. said:
So because the storm center will pass by that evening, we are going to put everyone in harms way prior to the game. You can’t even make this up.
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The major threat inland is tornadoes to the right of the center of circulation. It's not a big deal as the models weaken the wind field quickly.
 
J.C. said:
So because the storm center will pass by that evening, we are going to put everyone in harms way prior to the game. You can’t even make this up.
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It seems like they are putting all their focus into the conditions during the game itself and not considering the dangers that people may face trying to get to the game. I’ve seen wind maps showing 60 mph+ winds in Tuscaloosa which could do a lot of damage.
 
Makeitsnow said:
I have to believe that with such a strong dry punch of air/interaction with the upper low that heavy training cells will be interesting to watch in Georgia. One would thinknthe models are underestimating totals in ga
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Agree. Even with the fast-forward motion, those who wind up under those training bands will get copious rainfall.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
It seems like they are putting all their focus into the conditions during the game itself and not considering the dangers that people may face trying to get to the game. I’ve seen wind maps showing 60 mph+ winds in Tuscaloosa which could do a lot of damage.
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What about moving the game to Oct 24th like that person suggested in the comments?
 
View attachment 198600
J.C. said:
So because the storm center will pass by that evening, we are going to put everyone in harms way prior to the game. You can’t even make this up.
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James Spann said this morning that the worst of the storm should be clear of the Tuscaloosa area by noon Saturday and he felt much better about playing the game as scheduled.
 
TileDude said:
View attachment 198600

James Spann said this morning that the worst of the storm should be clear of the Tuscaloosa area by noon Saturday and he felt much better about playing the game as scheduled.
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I agree with Spann that that’s looking more likely as almost all of the globals have continued to speed up the movement to the point where the center gets by their latitude by ~noon-1PM CDT. Thus I continue to lean toward them playing there on time as most of the afternoon would even be ok for tailgating

-However, what if there’s a lot of damage and outages there in the morning? Wouldn’t that be a major problem?

-Are state troopers going to be extra busy especially in S AL making their availability for the game limited?
 
GaWx said:
I agree with Spann that that’s looking more likely as almost all of the globals have continued to speed up the movement to the point where the center gets by their latitude by ~noon-1PM CDT. Thus I continue to lean toward them playing there on time as most of the afternoon would even be ok for tailgating

-However, what if there’s a lot of damage and outages there in the morning? Wouldn’t that be a major problem?

-Are state troopers going to be extra busy especially in S AL making their availability for the game limited?
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Agree 👍 I think currently the only factor that would affect playing the game as scheduled is power outages and down trees affecting traffic flow. He also mentioned that the game day broadcast setup would make a decision tonight and would likely move indoors.
 
Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Isaias is strengthening in an environment of moderate vertical wind
shear. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the central pressure continues to fall and the
maximum winds are now near 75 kt. The center of the hurricane is
near the southwestern side of a Central Dense Overcast feature, and
some convective banding features are evident over the eastern
portion of the circulation. Additional aircraft reconnaissance
missions are scheduled for today, tonight, and Friday, so we will
have close monitoring of the intensity of the system up until
landfall.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that Isais
continues on a generally east-northward track with an initial
motion of about 060/9 kt. During the next 36 hours, the hurricane
should gradually turn toward the northeast and north as it moves
between a ridge extending from the Bahamas across the Florida
Peninsula and a zonally-oriented mid-level trough near the
northwestern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of the
hurricane is forecast to move across the east-central to
northeastern Gulf coast in 36-42 hours. Thereafter, the weakening
cyclone should move over the southeastern United States bringing
strong winds well inland. The track guidance has not changed much
for this advisory cycle and the official forecast is similar to that
of the previous advisory.

The intensity forecast up to landfall is somewhat challenging.
On the one hand, the hurricane should move over waters of high
oceanic heat content and within a fairly moist air mass through
tomorrow. On the other hand, the SHIPS model input parameters show
a significant increase in vertical wind shear, particularly when
Isais nears the coast. Regarding, the shorter-term intensity
forecast, a recent WSFM microwave satellite image at 37 GHz
frequency shows a closed ring around the eye. This is typically a
harbinger of rapid intensification. The 12-hour forecast does show
a relatively large increase in strength, but in view of the
expected stronger shear in 24-36 hours, some decrease in intensity
is indicated as Isaias approaches the coast. Regardless, Isaias is
expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and
gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the
anticipated expansion of the wind field and accelerating forward
speed of the storm.
 
1791473140333.png


150300 2329N 08951W 6974 03031 9883 +124 +078 207077 079 /// /// 03
150330 2330N 08952W 6964 03034 9864 +134 +072 208079 080 /// /// 03
150400 2331N 08954W 6971 03016 9850 +138 +070 205078 080 /// /// 03
150430 2332N 08956W 6965 03017 9837 +141 +084 204082 084 /// /// 03
150500 2333N 08957W 6970 02994 9809 +148 +100 202082 084 /// /// 03
150530 2334N 08959W 6958 02996 9786 +154 +109 203079 082 /// /// 03

84 kt flight level x .9 = 75.6 kt
87 mph surface
 
jrips27 said:
TS Watches up for inland AL/GA View attachment 198603
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This is for way up in C AL including Birmingham and Tuscaloosa:

**TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA**

* STORM INFORMATION: - ABOUT 710 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM AL OR ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY AL - 23.7N 90.2W - STORM INTENSITY 85 MPH - MOVEMENT EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.
 
Arcc said:
Very impressive for the NW eyewall.
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Definitely seems to lineup with the many reports in past few hours that it seemingly has really pulled together. It's concerning because we have seen in very warm waters like in the Gulf right now system really blow up big in past definitely think Cat 3 is not out of picture at least before approaching landfall and weakening. Bottomline is the more amped it is the longer it will take to weaken and more inland impact will be felt as well
 
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