Tropical Hurricane Ida

[Tarheel1]

It still looks East of NHC track

 

[Tarheel1]

HMON is bumping Cat 5 by tomorrow afternoon at 133knts before landfall at 130knts with the HWRF around 120knts.

Same song and dance for the past four years.

It’s been right a time or 3

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wow these outer bands seem to really pack a punch .. velocity’s show some 40-50 mph winds in these bowing segments … hallmarks of a strong hurricane

 

[accu35]

It still looks East of NHC track

It is a little.

 

[DadOfJax]

Due west movement the last 30 minutes...

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Metwannabe]

 

[Tornadocane]

Well 1700 ft is not exactly a few, it was a gust the same drop got 92 at the surface which is in line with what recon is finding overall, surface winds are 90-100 at best still, even FL winds are barely breaking 100 mph....

Yeah. My bad about the incorrect Mb to feet conversion.

However, I was under impression that strengthening storms with winds that close to the surface provided a good signal that surface winds would increase as convection starts to blow-up and bring the higher winds to the ground. And Recon hadn't really found any 95-100 MPH until the end of the mission, but they were finding these gusts above the ground when they started. That's why those +110 winds interested me.

 

[SD]

Boy it really wrapped that band of deep convection around the eye recently. It may be about to make big run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yikes

 

[Metwannabe]

Due west movement the last 30 minutes...

This is the time models showed the ridge flexing and track bending west, seems right on track

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Rain Cold]

Yikes View attachment 89578

Definitely looks better than the swirling earlier. Got a couple of good outflow channels established now too.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Shaggy]

Due west movement the last 30 minutes...

Yeah clearly moving back west more again. New flare up also looking healthy.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

oh man maybe 6 hours or so and this thing might go buzzsaw mode

 

[ForsythSnow]

That eyewall looks pretty rough right now still but the necessary convection we were looking for earlier has finally wrapped fully around the center now with the cold tops. So long as they are sustained going forward we'll see some further intensification.

 

[Shaggy]

oh man maybe 6 hours or so and this thing might go buzzsaw mode View attachment 89579

I know we are gonna havw a gap in recon but really tomorrow morning is when they need constant coverage to see what the storm is doing the last few hours before landfall.

 

[Stormsfury]

Still moving NW but a little left than previous. Don't let the mesovorticity throw you off..

 

[CentralALWX]

From the AFD from NWS New Orleans.

Ida has been gaining strength through the day and the
presentation on satellite is very ominous. A few very concerning
observations. Ida still hasn`t really rapidly intensified yet, and
the thinking is it still will and that now means that it could be
strengthening up to or just before making landfall. Even though that
hasn`t occurred it is already stronger than what the guidance was
initially expecting and it has been a slow increase. Ida is going to
continue to strengthen for at least the next 12-18 hours. There is
no dry air around, upper level outflow is quite impressive, and Ida
will move over the warmest and deepest part of the Gulf. This is all
very conducive for strengthening. What this can mean is that there
may not be time for an eye wall replacement cycle to get started
which would lead to some slight weakening but as mentioned already
it could be strengthening up to landfall.