Tropical Hurricane Helene

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Henry2326]

60%, extended the bubble, and added a circle.



A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of
Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of development,
this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of
Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

4. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is
possible next week as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

 

[Henry2326]

Moving closer together.....

 

[BHS1975]

Something is definitely bubbling down there.


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[Wild Weather Monger]

Wasting no time it looks.

 

[jrips27]

 

[NWMSGuy]

Sounds like a possibility of whole new solutions may be coming at some point with that info. Guess time will tell.

 

[jrips27]

Theme of the early 12z runs is a sloppy mess. Different timing and landfall points. Still wouldn’t expect to see a consensus til we get a real center

 

[lexxnchloe]

ICON went back to nothing. GFS basically nothing. a flying north weak tropical storm

 

[lexxnchloe]

Theme of the early 12z runs is a sloppy mess. Different timing and landfall points. Still wouldn’t expect to see a consensus til we get a real center View attachment 151387View attachment 151388View attachment 151386

Fast=a nothing sloppy stretched out mess

 

[Brent]

Won't know much til recon goes out Monday

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
NEAR 17.5N 84.5W FOR 23/1800Z.

 

[lexxnchloe]

CMC wants to give it another try

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: 991 Pensacola Fri night
12Z UKMET: 1000 FL panhandle Fri night

 

[lexxnchloe]

Congrats to Webby for calling it a likely strung out mess. Here is JB's take

 

[Chazwin]

Theme of the early 12z runs is a sloppy mess. Different timing and landfall points. Still wouldn’t expect to see a consensus til we get a real center View attachment 151387View attachment 151388View attachment 151386

I really wouldn’t trust any of the modeling on either track or especially strength until there is an actual system to lock onto. I’ll always remember how models had Michael as a TS/ weak hurricane at landfall when it was first developing

 

[jrips27]

I really wouldn’t trust any of the modeling on either track or especially strength until there is an actual system to lock onto. I’ll always remember how models had Michael as a TS/ weak hurricane at landfall when it was first developing

Absolutely. Anything can happen and surprises are usually a given

 

[NoSnowATL]

Tighter goal post and weaker is the name of the game today. Flooding should be the only issues as of now.

 

[Henry2326]

It's not going west, says NHC.....still at 60%

 

[Brick Tamland]

I really wouldn’t trust any of the modeling on either track or especially strength until there is an actual system to lock onto. I’ll always remember how models had Michael as a TS/ weak hurricane at landfall when it was first developing

Especially the way they have blown up quickly in the Gulf the past few years.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Even at five days, models are still all over the place with the CONUS 500Mb pattern. That position and stregnth of that ULL over the southern plains is key.