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Tropical Hurricane Gert

Latest runs overall stronger again. Gert will also be a 45 mph TS with a central pressure of 1009 mb at 11.
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Microwave imagery shows Gert is in the process of developing an eyewall, it's currently a little over halfway complete and open to the west and northwest...
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Latest ATCF puts Gert at 50 knots (60 mph) w/ 1002mb minimum central pressure, likely what we're gonna see at the 11am advisory
 
Webberweather53 said:
Microwave imagery shows Gert is in the process of developing an eyewall, it's currently a little over halfway complete and open to the west and northwest...
View attachment 857

Latest ATCF puts Gert at 50 knots (60 mph) w/ 1002mb minimum central pressure, likely what we're gonna see at the 11am advisory
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That is exactly what the 11 am advisory that was just out out shows. That strengthened quite fast. Maybe we will see a hurricane today?
 
ForsythSnow said:
That is exactly what the 11 am advisory that was just out out shows. That strengthened quite fast. Maybe we will see a hurricane today?
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Certainly possible, the inner core is nearly complete and once it's closed off (assuming no dry air intrusions occur) Gert will take off.
The HWRF however is forecasting more dry air intrusion into the north and northwest side of Gert (which is currently open atm) in the next 12 hours or so before the inner core closes off which effectively forces Gert to spend more time mixing out this dry air rather than intensifying, thus it's much less enthused in the longer term...
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Webberweather53 said:
Certainly possible, the inner core is nearly complete and once it's closed off (assuming no dry air intrusions occur) Gert will take off.
The HWRF however is forecasting more dry air intrusion into the north and northwest side of Gert (which is currently open atm) in the next 12 hours or so before the inner core closes off which effectively forces Gert to spend more time mixing out this dry air rather than intensifying, thus it's much less enthused in the longer term...
View attachment 860
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Where da heck you come up with this stuff, lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
Certainly possible, the inner core is nearly complete and once it's closed off (assuming no dry air intrusions occur) Gert will take off.
The HWRF however is forecasting more dry air intrusion into the north and northwest side of Gert (which is currently open atm) in the next 12 hours or so before the inner core closes off which effectively forces Gert to spend more time mixing out this dry air rather than intensifying, thus it's much less enthused in the longer term...
View attachment 860
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Take off is right if you look at now both the HWRF and HMON. Both now have Gert becoming a 100+ knot hurricane in about 2 or 3 days after some slow strengthening.
 
A nascent eye is beginning to pop out on satellite w/ multiple hot towers near Gert's LLC, should be interesting to see if it can close off the inner core with the sliver of dry air trying to get entrained into the west side of the circulation. If successful, it will bust the NHC's intensity forecast as well as the short range predictions from the HWRF/HMON for steady intensification
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Latest ATCF puts Gert at 55 knots (65 mph) with 996mb minimum central pressure and there's a little more room left for intensification before the 5pm advisory. Right on the cusp of becoming a hurricane...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Latest ATCF puts Gert at 55 knots (65 mph) with 996mb minimum central pressure and there's a little more room left for intensification before the 5pm advisory. Right on the cusp of becoming a hurricane...
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Looking at that and the sat loop, I would think we can get a cat 1 by 8, maybe 5 if the dry air doesn't get into the eyewall too much.
 
Dry air to the west and southwest of Gert's circulation looks to have become ingested into its core right as it was closing off (reminiscent of Franklin before it hit the Yucatán), & consequently cloud tops have progressively been warming the past few hours. Thus, any intensification that was occurring earlier is liable to level off, if not, some modest weakening may occur as Gert mixes the dry air out of its core. Kudos to the HWRF for sniffing this out.
 
0z ATCF has Gert as a 65 knot (75 mph) category 1 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 986mb. An upgrade may be forthcoming at 11... Although the cloud tops became warmer the convection became increasingly symmetrical the past few hours which may explain the upgrade to a hurricane...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
 
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Webberweather53 said:
0z ATCF has Gert as a 65 knot (75 mph) category 1 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 986mb. An upgrade may be forthcoming at 11... Although the cloud tops became warmer the convection became increasingly symmetrical the past few hours which may explain the upgrade to a hurricane...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
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Fine with me upgrading the thread name to Hurricane Gert with that info? NWS will no doubt use it a 11 unless it gets stronger.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Fine with me upgrading the thread name to Hurricane Gert with that info? NWS will no doubt use it a 11 unless it gets stronger.
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Yeah sure! 99.9% of the time the ATCF is usually what ends up coming out on the advisory of course unless there's some special piece of information (microwave pass, HHs, buoy, etc.) that argues otherwise
 
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Gert ingested dry air yesterday which has halted intensification overnight, however Gert will spend about 24-36 hours in an environment characterized by a robust equatorward outflow channel into the subtropical jet and into the entrance region of a 140 kt+ jet streak in the mid latitude jet which can often lead to rapid intensification due to the exceptional amount of forced ascent.
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ForsythSnow said:
Looks like the NHS is following the CI vs the T. Seeing that uptick should mean an upgrade at 2.
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There's usually a lag between the CI and the T numbers, the appearance of a 20nm wide eye shrouded by a cirrus deck on satellite a few hours ago should have warranted at least a 5 KT increase in the winds in spite of satellite estimates not increasing until the last second, because there's no doubt its organization has improved in the past 6 hours since the 5 o clock advisory. Like I said, i call bs...
 
Quick question Eric. What do they use to analyze the tropical Cyclonic energy in which gert is going to contribute to the ACE index. Also, does NHC estimate on the winds speed have any affect on the validity of the data imputed for the index?
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's usually a lag between the CI and the T numbers, the appearance of a 20nm wide eye shrouded by a cirrus deck on satellite a few hours ago should have warranted at least a 5 KT increase in the winds in spite of satellite estimates not increasing until the last second, because there's no doubt its organization has improved in the past 6 hours since the 5 o clock advisory. Like I said, i call bs...
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Should be a Cat 2 per the CI now. Definitely had a lag as you said.
08LP.GIF
 
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