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Tropical Hurricane Gert

The way we've had east coast troughs coming and going this summer, there will be smaller than normal window of opportunity for the African wave train to slip one in and threaten the SE imo. But all it takes is 1.
 
NCSNOW said:
The way we've had east coast troughs coming and going this summer, there will be smaller than normal window of opportunity for the African wave train to slip one in and threaten the SE imo. But all it takes is 1.
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Activity looks to slow down during the first of September . Hopefully we get through this month without a hit


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99L looks slightly more healthy on tonight's 0z run of GFS vs. it's 18z run. The ridge is trying to still shread it apart while the wave is still trying to stay consolidated.

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Gert is such a terrible name if this does become a real threat lol

Just getting that out of the way
 
Brent said:
Euro going crazy, near hurricane at day 6

Going to stay east of the US though this run
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It sure is, time is closing in, we're now closing in on the 7 day window (if euro holds true.) CMC still has the wave as well but it keeps it well off shore.

Depending on how far south the trough digs down, the wave may have a quick shot at effecting the SE coast (GA/FL) and then the trough sweeps it northeastward towards the Carolina's (coastal Carolina's) then back out to sea. Just a thought that could possibly occur based from the Euro and CMC.


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Brent said:
Euro going crazy, near hurricane at day 6

Going to stay east of the US though this run
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Close enough for the pucker factor along the OBX if Euro holds.... hard to tell but looks like the EPS might be just a tick west of the op, would love to see the eps member tracks
 
I don't think there is much doubt that trough will eventually give a north pathway IF 99L actually develops but just how far west before that occurs is a huge question. As Larry pointed out due to the OBX of NC sticking out like a sore thumb (not exactly his words lol) it will be the most vulnerable IF.. IF.. IF. Currently still very elongated and somewhat bi-polar... looks like a low level circulation on southern end that is just now trying to get some pathetic t-storms going and then that cluster to the north, not sure if there is also a spin there or not. IF it develops which of these areas becomes dominant and how late does it develop will go a long way in determining just how close to NC it may or may not get
 
Right now Euro, CMC, NAVGEM all develop 99L and all kick it through the OBX - Bermuda field goal post......
 
99L looks more healthy this morning than it did yesterday evening. There's convection going on and some outflow. It doesn't really have a circulation though.




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12z CMC - the trough sweeps the wave off to the NE keeping the wave off shore.
Will be interesting to see how 99L evolves. I can see it has gotten pretty quiet around here after the GFS let go of 99L. Lol.
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Glad to see how the GFS was SOOO right a few days ago...It's now SOOO clueless...That model is just amazing!


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haha the Euro is all in

Weenie alert :weenie::weenie:

The trough is coming though I bet it kicks out
 
Storm5 said:
No doubt .

The pucker meter lol


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Yeah it's like the bread and milk meter in winter just more serious lol. Eps tracks gonna be interesting still think if it develops it stays ots

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metwannabe said:
Yeah it's like the bread and milk meter in winter just more serious lol. Eps tracks gonna be interesting still think if it develops it stays ots

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Yeah I agree but a weaker faster system could make more of an east coast run . That was an aggressive run strength wise . But interesting for sure. Wonder when the gfs " upgrade " gets back on board


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Storm5 said:
Yeah I agree but a weaker faster system could make more of an east coast run . That was an aggressive run strength wise . But interesting for sure. Wonder when the gfs " upgrade " gets back on board


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Totally agree... kinda what I was alluding to earlier.

IF it develops which of these areas becomes dominant and how late does it develop will go a long way in determining just how close to NC it may or may not get

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Storm5 said:
Yeah I agree but a weaker faster system could make more of an east coast run . That was an aggressive run strength wise . But interesting for sure. Wonder when the gfs " upgrade " gets back on board


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"Upgrade" I needed that laugh

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Looks like this could be a close one. Been going back and forth as far as chances for development.
 
Euro just went... just kidding. Barely even anything at 120. Much further NE too, faster to eject OTS
 
We'll see how it turns out over this weekend. Still, it all depends on the trough. The wave could slow down due to the trough and then slip underneath but the chances of that is small. If the trough moves slower than what is being shown, 99L may have a chance to come much closer to the coasts.


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12z CMC - the wave slows down well off the SE coast as it "waits" for the trough. That's interesting to note. Also, CMC has backed way down on the strength of the wave.
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I refuse to believe there will be a tropical cyclone until the superior model the GFS shows one. Last week it was the model of choice. (sarcasm)


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While nothing is ever set in stone in the tropics, I still feel quite confident that 99L will not have a significant effect on the SE US wx with the slight possibility of an exception for E NC since it sticks out further. Modeling has been about as consistent as it ever gets on this idea over the last few days and it makes sense since the numerous runs continue to show the lack of a high setting up anywhere near the NE US and the one offshore is far enough offshore to very likely allow a safe recurve to its west. Also, the strength is very much in question as many GFS runs have shown next to nothing, regardless.
 
Looks like Euro continues it latest trend of weaker and more NE with development.... IF this develops will most likely be weak and I'm with Larry I'm extremely confident this will not have significant effects on SE US, even eastern NC

edit: and as soon as I type this it tries to pump the Bermuda ridge bumping it NW a tad haha but still probably will be ots. Guess I'll wait for it to finish before I try to project Lol
 
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