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Tropical Hurricane Gert

Looking rather elongated this morning. Good luck getting development with this look. The window for consolidation is closing fast as it looks like its about to pick up its forward speed
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Storm5 said:
Looking rather elongated this morning. Good luck getting development with this look. The window for consolidation is closing fast as it looks like its about to pick up its forward speed
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Also, there's dry, dusty air to the north and west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/wv-l.jpg

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Storm5 said:
Looking rather elongated this morning. Good luck getting development with this look. The window for consolidation is closing fast as it looks like its about to pick up its forward speed
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That actually doesn't look that bad. Voticity pooling on the SE side.
 
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Storm5 said:
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I wasn't claiming a hurricane hit just saying the moisture envelope might make a pass at the region which you can see in the last image. Im personally not sold on development and think if it does occur it'll be north of the islands but that's fairly unusual
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0Z and 6z Model Suite actually trended toward 99L off the Southeast Coast Again, and a more of a strengthening storm then previous runs.. Keep and Eye Out Y'all 99L might don't be dead after all!!
 
Yeah, don't go to sleep on 99L in the southeastern US... Big AEWs like this don't just suddenly die in the central Atlantic especially if conditions warrant further west (as we've seen time and time again the past several years)
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EPS getting more enthused about the prospects of 99L attempting to redevelop in the Bahamas or off the SE US coast with every run... We'll see if this continues...
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Now look at which model drops storms only to bring them back...


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metwannabe said:
Interesting CMC and Euro now.....
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lol last week it was the euro was wrong on twitter . Now the gfs jumped shipped and the euro has a storm and the bandwagon is filling up fast. I'm not saying there won't be a system I just think it's funny . It's like winter in August


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Storm5 said:
lol last week it was the euro was wrong on twitter . Now the gfs jumped shipped and the euro has a storm and the bandwagon is filling up fast. I'm not saying there won't be a system I just think it's funny . It's like winter in August


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LMAO!


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Storm5 said:
lol last week it was the euro was wrong on twitter . Now the gfs jumped shipped and the euro has a storm and the bandwagon is filling up fast. I'm not saying there won't be a system I just think it's funny . It's like winter in August


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Who is jumping on any bandwagon? Are you speaking of mets on twitter, on air or people on here?
 
Storm5 said:
lol last week it was the euro was wrong on twitter . Now the gfs jumped shipped and the euro has a storm and the bandwagon is filling up fast. I'm not saying there won't be a system I just think it's funny . It's like winter in August


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Epic model madness!!!
 
So, it is clear per model consensus that if it develops that this has a good chance to recurve safely offshore the SE, a common track. Fortunately, there isn't a strong upper high progged to be over or near the NE US. Instead, the strong high is centered well offshore and will hopefully allow this to recurve safely offshore. However, if not, E NC would probably be at the highest risk for a hit since it sticks out further and some recent runs hit them.

Regarding my area, I'm not concerned at this time since I'm well protected from direct hits with this kind of trajectory. The highest chance for GA to be affected would be if the recurve is delayed and it comes over FL first. But overall, my expectation is that FL, GA, and SC aren't likely to be affected in any big way when considering the model consensus.
 
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Spot on Larry. All those Euro tracks atm, regardless of how intense or big a dud 99l becomes, overwhelmingly show the Atlantic HP has to flex, build back more for this to be a landfall concern. But we all know things can and probably will change 9+ days from now.
 
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