ForsythSnow
Moderator
Latest runs overall stronger again. Gert will also be a 45 mph TS with a central pressure of 1009 mb at 11.
That is exactly what the 11 am advisory that was just out out shows. That strengthened quite fast. Maybe we will see a hurricane today?Microwave imagery shows Gert is in the process of developing an eyewall, it's currently a little over halfway complete and open to the west and northwest...
View attachment 857
Latest ATCF puts Gert at 50 knots (60 mph) w/ 1002mb minimum central pressure, likely what we're gonna see at the 11am advisory
That is exactly what the 11 am advisory that was just out out shows. That strengthened quite fast. Maybe we will see a hurricane today?
Where da heck you come up with this stuff, lolCertainly possible, the inner core is nearly complete and once it's closed off (assuming no dry air intrusions occur) Gert will take off.
The HWRF however is forecasting more dry air intrusion into the north and northwest side of Gert (which is currently open atm) in the next 12 hours or so before the inner core closes off which effectively forces Gert to spend more time mixing out this dry air rather than intensifying, thus it's much less enthused in the longer term...
View attachment 860
Take off is right if you look at now both the HWRF and HMON. Both now have Gert becoming a 100+ knot hurricane in about 2 or 3 days after some slow strengthening.Certainly possible, the inner core is nearly complete and once it's closed off (assuming no dry air intrusions occur) Gert will take off.
The HWRF however is forecasting more dry air intrusion into the north and northwest side of Gert (which is currently open atm) in the next 12 hours or so before the inner core closes off which effectively forces Gert to spend more time mixing out this dry air rather than intensifying, thus it's much less enthused in the longer term...
View attachment 860
Looking at that and the sat loop, I would think we can get a cat 1 by 8, maybe 5 if the dry air doesn't get into the eyewall too much.Latest ATCF puts Gert at 55 knots (65 mph) with 996mb minimum central pressure and there's a little more room left for intensification before the 5pm advisory. Right on the cusp of becoming a hurricane...
Eye looks closed or very close to closed to me. It's strengthening fast alright.Looking at that and the sat loop, I would think we can get a cat 1 by 8, maybe 5 if the dry air doesn't get into the eyewall too much.
Fine with me upgrading the thread name to Hurricane Gert with that info? NWS will no doubt use it a 11 unless it gets stronger.0z ATCF has Gert as a 65 knot (75 mph) category 1 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 986mb. An upgrade may be forthcoming at 11... Although the cloud tops became warmer the convection became increasingly symmetrical the past few hours which may explain the upgrade to a hurricane...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
Fine with me upgrading the thread name to Hurricane Gert with that info? NWS will no doubt use it a 11 unless it gets stronger.
Looks like the new max is 105mph... Looks to me like Gert will make a run for the first major of the year.