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Tropical Hurricane Gert

Bye bye.... although it may be a touch closer than the 0z run, weak system too
ecmwf_mslpa_watl_6.png
 
EPS still shows development and OTS... notice a naked swirl on vis sat earlier that now has some storms firing right over top, just enough to keep it "alive" until it can reach more favorable environment for some development
 
GaWx said:
I thought the same way until I later realized this is short for "Gertrude."

Edit: Then why not name it "Gertrude"?
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Hmmm this is interesting...
"Gert is a mainly masculine given name (short form of Gerard) with some female bearers (short for Gertrude). [1] Pronunciation is typically /ˈχɛrt/ in Afrikaans and Dutch, /ˈgɛrt/ in Danish, German, and Swedish, and /ˈɡɜːrt/ in English.

Since 1993 no one in Sweden has been baptised as Gert according to the Swedish Bureau of Census,[citation needed] so the name is becoming increasingly rare. In 2010 around 12,000 in Sweden had the name as their first name according to the same source. Gert is most common in Sweden among males over 50 years of age. Around 400 females in Sweden have Gert as their first name according to the Swedish Bureau of Census."
 
With the northeastern convection starting to wane it'll be interesting to see what the new convection near what looks to be a LLC can do tonight.

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I just checked the ATCF, some memebers are bringing in 99L close to the SE coast but still off shore.

One memeber brings in 99L just off of the NC coast up through far southeastern NJ. I wouldn't say for sure the EC is out of the clear at this moment. It will be interesting to see the spaghetti plots look like once the wave is southeast of the Bahama's.



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Showed some life overnight and still hanging on this morning, back up to 50% also..... either way all signs point to this staying well offshore. But hopefully it can get named at some point, I know one texan that would be thrilled to see Gert out of the way Lol
 
Wind shear has been dropping like a rock over 99L the past 24 hours, now down to ~ 5 knots... Definitely going to be a window of opportunity for TCG the next 36-48 hours while shear remains relatively low in advance of a burgeoning subtropical ridge axis that will attempt to impart increasing northerly-northeasterly shear onto 99L as early as late Sunday...
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Webberweather53 said:
Wind shear has been dropping like a rock over 99L the past 24 hours, now down to ~ 5 knots... Definitely going to be a window of opportunity for TCG the next 36-48 hours while shear remains relatively low in advance of a burgeoning subtropical ridge axis that will attempt to impart increasing northerly-northeasterly shear onto 99L as early as late Sunday...
View attachment 808
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Certainly not as much as the HWRF showed at 12Z. Lol what an outlier. It seems to have spin in it, so it's survived quite a lot so far.
99L_intensity_latest.png

NAM also says bring it on, but it's just a mesoscale model.
nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png
 
SD said:
Looking fairly healthy this morning

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Yeah not sure about a llc but it certainly looks good, darn near TD.... will be interesting to see if it develops if the GFS ever latches on to it, only model not showing development, it's been completely pathetic wrt to the tropics since the so called upgrade.
 
Hurricane hunters are currently slated to investigate 99L by 19z tomorrow unless something changes or they cancel...
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 31.5N 72.0W AT 14/1900Z.
 
99L doesnt appear to have a well defined, closed circulation just yet, low level clouds on the southern end of the convective mass are streaming from south to north, although the mid level circulation is definitely becoming more organized and wave axis has sharpened appreciably...
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NHC increases chances for TCG from 99L to 80% in 48 hours and the next 5 days
"Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area located about 250 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands have become better organized during the past several hours, and visible satellite images suggest a low-level circulation may be forming. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Sunday while the system moves northwestward. The low is forecast to turn northward, then northeastward away from the United States early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent."
 
If Gert were to form from 99L within the next couple of days, I'd have to call the first half of August as active/well above average in the Atlantic basin, especially considering that the 2nd half is much more active climowise. That would make it the most active 1st half since 2012.
 
Hard to believe gert is imminent just doesn't feel like it's been a busy season so far lol

Ascat just out looks suspicious
 
Nice to see the NHC went with a near hurricane right off the bat in the 5 day forecast, there's definitely room for more intensification than advertised if 99L is able to establish a solid poleward outflow channel into the mid latitude jet, as we've seen numerous other storms pull off the past several years in the subtropical Atlantic...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Nice to see the NHC went with a near hurricane right off the bat in the 5 day forecast, there's definitely room for more intensification than advertised if 99L is able to establish a solid poleward outflow channel into the mid latitude jet, as we've seen numerous other storms pull off the past several years in the subtropical Atlantic...
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Yep, the chances of this becoming our first major hurricane isn't bad either if you use this area historically.
 
Due to the CMC being the most persistent with this, it gets the find half point. The Euro, though initially finding the system first, had a different development window, giving the find to the CMC. It also appears that unless this thing goes insane, the CMC would be right on with strength.
 
The ATCF message which NHC utilizes and closes follows for advisory packages has TD Eight as Tropical Storm Gert... We should have an upgrade here at 5pm.
AL, 08, 2017081318, , BEST, 0, 277N, 716W, 35, 1011, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 70, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
 
Webberweather53 said:
The ATCF message which NHC utilizes and closes follows for advisory packages has TD Eight as Tropical Storm Gert... We should have an upgrade here at 5pm.
AL, 08, 2017081318, , BEST, 0, 277N, 716W, 35, 1011, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 70, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
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almost time to unwrap a package then ... :cool:
 
Webberweather53 said:
The ATCF message which NHC utilizes and closes follows for advisory packages has TD Eight as Tropical Storm Gert... We should have an upgrade here at 5pm.
AL, 08, 2017081318, , BEST, 0, 277N, 716W, 35, 1011, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 70, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
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There ya go...
Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone is gradually
strengthening. The banding features have become better established
during the last several hours, and the system has become less
vertically tilted. The Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT
values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support increasing
the initial wind speed to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm
Gert.

Gert is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt on the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge. A northward motion is expected
tonight and Monday while the system rounds the western side of the
ridge, and Gert is expected to be about midway between Bermuda and
North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday. After that time, a
progressively faster motion to the northeast and east-northeast is
forecast as the system moves on the north side of the ridge and
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies until it dissipates
in about 5 days. The track guidance remains in very good agreement,
and only small changes were made to the previous NHC prediction.
This forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance
envelope.

The system is over warm 29 deg C SSTs, and it will remain over
these warm waters during the next few days. In addition, the global
models indicate that the upper-level pattern should become conducive
for strengthening during the next 36 hours or so. The combination
of these conditions should allow Gert to strengthen during the next
couple of days. Thereafter, a sharp increase in west-southwesterly
shear, drier air, and decreasing sea surface temperatures should end
the strengthening trend and lead to extratropical transition in
a little more than 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly
above the previous one, but remains on the lower side of the
guidance.

The center of Gert recently passed very near NOAA buoy 41047, and
that data has been helpful in estimating the minimum pressure of the
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 28.1N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 29.3N 72.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 31.1N 72.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 32.9N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 35.1N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 39.8N 59.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 45.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
More models seemed to up their strength for Gert last run. A few more top out at hurricane strength. Looking great tonight, so I say we get a hurricane before it gets too far north.
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