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Tropical Hurricane Franklin

Would be first hurricane of the season if it does

and it looks to be well on the way this morning
 
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Here's the animation: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80
 
Models have really dropped off on the wind possibilities when it gets into the Gulf. Meanwhile, if the storm gains 10 mph before 11 tonight, it would be classified as rapid intensification. I personally think we could see a cat 1 before landfall at the rate its strengthening.
 
There's definitely a good chance Franklin undergoes binary interaction w/ the central American monsoon gyre and thus actually verifies south of the NHC forecast in the Bay of Campeche as was true during Ernesto (2012), Karl (2010), and Stan (2005)...

Stan (2005)
Screen Shot 2017-08-07 at 11.47.20 AM.png

Karl (2010)
Screen Shot 2017-08-07 at 11.48.34 AM.png

Ernesto (2012)
Screen Shot 2017-08-07 at 12.00.09 PM.png

The GFS is catching onto this last second WSW-SW hook into Mexico as Franklin rotates cyclonically around the monsoon gyre on its latest 12z run
Unknown.gif
 
So far, the HWRF is doing best as development speed goes on the short range models. The HMON was too weak. The NAVGEM is doing well for the medium range models as it has the pressure pretty close and winds as well for a couple days worth of runs. The GFS, CMC, and Euro have been a little weak and haven't strengthened the storm until the Gulf much.
 
Certainly appears some dry air was ingested into Franklin's circulation off Belize and Honduras, this might halt rapid intensification before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula...
vis-animated.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Certainly appears some dry air was ingested into Franklin's circulation off Belize and Honduras, this might halt rapid intensification before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula...
vis-animated.gif
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Great blow by blow (as of course, always), Webb!
Thanks,
Phil
 
Recon reporting an eye open to the nw

Winds and pressure pretty close to the nhc estimates so far
 
The pressure is steadily falling in the center of Franklin as ForsythSnow alluded to, now down to 994.9mb w/ 20 KT wind on the last recon pass which converts to about 994...
recon_AF304-0107A-FRANKLIN_zoom.png
 
Recon headed out of the storm now. Definitely got stronger. Hurricane at the update? I don't think so. I think at best it will be a 70 mph storm, but that may be pushing it.
 
pcbjr said:
We'll debate that in another lifetime ... :confused:
Just passing along info and frankly, I'm exhausted ... :oops:
Pardon me for intruding, BTW ... o_O
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I don't care if you pass along info, expecially if it is by another source. I don't disagree or complain against anyone if they post Kevin Martin, that said I will disagree with the person who was quoted.
 
Arcc said:
I don't care if you pass along info, expecially if it is by another source. I don't disagree or complain against anyone if they post Kevin Martin, that said I will disagree with the person who was quoted.
Click to expand...
I quit ...
Please donate to Wiki
Please have some humor
Please contribute
Please
and bye ...
 
very odd storms usually blow up in that region not die... highest TCHP in the basin... Earl did it last year too
 
The Yucatán has been a saving grace for Franklin if seems... frictional convergence with the flat terrain has allowed its inner core to finally consolidate and mix out the dry air it ingested yesterday off Honduras and Belize. Should have no trouble intensifying once it goes back over water in the Bay of Campeche...the one major impediment, if any to rapid intensification will be an increase in northerly wind shear imparted by an upper low trailing the cyclone as it nears landfall in Mexico again. Shear may be up to 20-25 kts by 36 hr however it's heavily dependent on how much heat Franklin is able to throw at the ULL... Franklin will probably be somewhere between 60-90 KTS at landfall near Veracruz although further intensification is certainly possible...
 
Franklin's circulation is looking great this evening. I bet that as soon as it is fully over water in the next 12 hours we will see some good intensification again.
GOES22002017220sDMDQk.jpg
 
Too bad its going to Mexico

:weenie:

Eyewall almost closed already.... it JUST hit the water lmao
 
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The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Puerto
de Veracruz to Tuxpan.

Its happening

:weenie:
 
Bombs away on satellite it appears

The hurricane hunters were like perfect timing this evening
 
Still not a hurricane, but probably because it finished a cycle of RI. It will likely start one soon again and intensify further, unless the land interaction its southern end is undergoing has stabilized it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Still not a hurricane, but probably because it finished a cycle of RI. It will likely start one soon again and intensify further, unless the land interaction its southern end is undergoing has stabilized it.
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That's a pretty populated area down there ... no 'Cane for those folks would be nice, though rain will be a problem regardless ...
 
pcbjr said:
That's a pretty populated area down there ... no 'Cane for those folks would be nice, though rain will be a problem regardless ...
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Rain is likely their main problem, given mudslides will occur regardless of if it was a depression or a cat 3. Winds only make it easier. Unfortunately, this storm is going to cause a lot of flooding once it hits and the moisture piles up on the mountains.
 
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