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Tropical Hurricane Franklin

No doubt 90L looks pretty solid atm, decelerating trade wind flow (especially by tomorrow), very warm water over the western Caribbean and tilting of the wave axis into a more upright juxtaposition should allow for further organization over the next day or so... The big question will be where the LLC consolidates along the tropical wave axis because this will have very significant implications on the eventual track of this over the next several days... If it consolidates earlier/further north, this will allot more time and open water for 90L to intensify over the western Caribbean and south-central Gulf of Mexico, and thus the further north & closer to the US (particularly south Texas) it will get and vis versa... The chances are definitely slim atm for a direct impact on the US coast but still can't be entirely ruled out just quite yet...
 
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90L's chances for TCG increasing...
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea are showing signs of
organization. Additional development of this system is possible
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or
Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system
reaches the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical
storm could form over the Bay of Campeche during the middle part of
next week. Development would likely not occur if the system moves
inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not
re-emerge over water. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if
necessary. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looking more and more like a depression each frame. Wonder how the surface winds are.
Click to expand...

Still no signs of earth relative westerlies and/or a significant pressure falls, but undoubtedly if this deep convection can persist along the wave axis for about another 36 hours or so (which seems increasingly probable atm), it'll generate a considerable amount of potential vorticity and the wave axis will progressively sharpen potentially enough to the point where westerlies will be observed...

sfcplot_2017080523.png
 
It's also worth mentioning here that if 90L does develop into a tropical cyclone, it's liable to be huge w/ a large-very large wind field and relatively low MSLP for a TC of similar strength due to the lower background sea level pressures in this part of the Atlantic as well as higher upper level moisture content...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol this storm takes up half the Gulf of Mexico...
View attachment 793
Click to expand...
Lol look at the 6Z run. Pracricallyba wrong cat 4 on the HWRF. I thought that was bad until I saw the GFS going nuts on pressure, them I looked at the HMON and it shows a strong hurricane as well. :confused: Likely not going to be that strong, but isn't there something about the shape of that area of the gulf that causes storms to blow up fast?
hwrf_mslp_uv850_90L_36.png

hmon-para_mslp_uv850_90L_35.png

gfs_mslp_wind_90L_17.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol look at the 6Z run. Pracricallyba wrong cat 4 on the HWRF. I thought that was bad until I saw the GFS going nuts on pressure, them I looked at the HMON and it shows a strong hurricane as well. :confused: Likely not going to be that strong, but isn't there something about the shape of that area of the gulf that causes storms to blow up fast?
hwrf_mslp_uv850_90L_36.png

hmon-para_mslp_uv850_90L_35.png

gfs_mslp_wind_90L_17.png
Click to expand...
Keep in mind those first 2 images are 850 hPa so the winds probably aren't going to be THAT strong at the surface but I could see how they may get brought down with a rapidly intensifying hurricane going into mountainous terrain... yeah the cyclonic curvature of the Bay of Campeche acts to focus low level convergence into a TC's circulation and RI is very common here, Karl (2010) is one of the finest examples of this...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Keep in mind those first 2 images are 850 hPa so the winds probably aren't going to be THAT strong at the surface but I could see how they may get brought down with a rapidly intensifying hurricane going into mountainous terrain... yeah the cyclonic curvature of the Bay of Campeche acts to focus low level convergence into a TC's circulation and RI is very common here, Karl (2010) is one of the finest examples of this...
Click to expand...
Lol whoops. I was looking at other models first and didn't catch that. They seem to be around 70-90 knots at the surface . Good point on the 850mb level too, since they show RI is very possible.
 
Funny how they were looking more at the wave further out having a better chance of developing, and now they switched. This one is blowing up fast now.
 
Not sure if it is a typo, but Tropical tidbits just updated and called this PTC 7.

No official info from NHC or NHC social media from what I can see.

Edit: Yep, just a typo. However, I feel the NHC will make it a PTC soon seeing the probabilities.
 
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