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Tropical Hurricane Franklin

Would be first hurricane of the season if it does

and it looks to be well on the way this morning
 
mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05_20170807145856.gif


Here's the animation: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80
 
Models have really dropped off on the wind possibilities when it gets into the Gulf. Meanwhile, if the storm gains 10 mph before 11 tonight, it would be classified as rapid intensification. I personally think we could see a cat 1 before landfall at the rate its strengthening.
 
There's definitely a good chance Franklin undergoes binary interaction w/ the central American monsoon gyre and thus actually verifies south of the NHC forecast in the Bay of Campeche as was true during Ernesto (2012), Karl (2010), and Stan (2005)...

Stan (2005)
Screen Shot 2017-08-07 at 11.47.20 AM.png

Karl (2010)
Screen Shot 2017-08-07 at 11.48.34 AM.png

Ernesto (2012)
Screen Shot 2017-08-07 at 12.00.09 PM.png

The GFS is catching onto this last second WSW-SW hook into Mexico as Franklin rotates cyclonically around the monsoon gyre on its latest 12z run
Unknown.gif
 
So far, the HWRF is doing best as development speed goes on the short range models. The HMON was too weak. The NAVGEM is doing well for the medium range models as it has the pressure pretty close and winds as well for a couple days worth of runs. The GFS, CMC, and Euro have been a little weak and haven't strengthened the storm until the Gulf much.
 
Certainly appears some dry air was ingested into Franklin's circulation off Belize and Honduras, this might halt rapid intensification before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula...
vis-animated.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Certainly appears some dry air was ingested into Franklin's circulation off Belize and Honduras, this might halt rapid intensification before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula...
vis-animated.gif
Click to expand...
Great blow by blow (as of course, always), Webb!
Thanks,
Phil
 
Recon reporting an eye open to the nw

Winds and pressure pretty close to the nhc estimates so far
 
The pressure is steadily falling in the center of Franklin as ForsythSnow alluded to, now down to 994.9mb w/ 20 KT wind on the last recon pass which converts to about 994...
recon_AF304-0107A-FRANKLIN_zoom.png
 
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