GeorgiaGirl
Member
Ukie
Still a tropical storm but stronger than the previous run.
Still a tropical storm but stronger than the previous run.
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think we have an obvious agreement here on the 12Z models. The FV3 is out to lunch and this thing is going to miss most Hispaniola's steep terrain. Let's see if the Euro sits with the GFS or the others.
Ethan80963!
Member
Saw this on the other thread pretty interesting
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt05L.html
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt05L.html
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The spike in the T values definitely indicate that it's intensifying and a lot faster than what many expected. The outflow is becoming more organized but I think some dry air is still mixing in.
And it keeps straight across Fl... hard to tell but I think it still interacts with Hispaniola, that's obviously really key in the future strength.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Euro is going to be really interesting. All the models except the FV3 have it hitting lower FL now and going across into the Gulf.
Brent
Member
Hwrf is so far weak and Shredder bound
12Z MODELS DORIAN
Quite the spread on intensity guidance.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Those are technically from the 6Z suite. Not the newest runs. The maps there are posted at around 12Z, but will always reflect the prior suite.
Brent
Member
after having a major yesterday the HWRF is now killing it over Hispanola
Watch the westward shift with that weakness/ULL in the gulf. Seeing shades of Irma.
Looks like it’s getting sheared by the increasing westerly flow. TBH the next twelve hours will determine if there is actually anything to track.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah it's struggling with that shear for sure, but at the same time it seems like it doesn't want to die. Probably not going to strengthen much more today and likely could weaken a little.
Yep it's shooting the gap between Hispaniola and PR....
And the Euro also has the Atlantic ridge building in quick, the two combined may in fact cause it to make a sharp left hand turn in the next couple of frames... wouldn't that be crazy, go north of the islands then left through the GOM, like it's driving around the land.
Shaggy
Member
Reminds me of Jeanne and frances to some degree. Feeling ok for now up here in NC as this one doesnt seem to have an out up the coast as of right now.
Agreed... I think it's either into the shredder or if it misses the high pushes it back west
So the high that looked to push it west is breaking down fairly quick on the Euro? I'm only out to 96 on the Euro and being impatient lol
Nope.... what there is of a TC is going west
Not really. Actually, high is a tad stronger. I'm basing that on the position being slightly further N than the 0Z. But let's see if it makes a sharper left turn. If so, it won't come into FL further north.
Yeah I just edited my post, looks like a left hook incoming because that high is stout
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Based off the 24 hour slides I "think" the Euro doesn't interact with the shredder much either. It's a little stronger but still looks like a tropical storm. Now let's see where it goes.
pcbjr
Member
NO (all caps).
The good news is it looks fairly weak
Brent
Member
Henry2326
Member
The real question: is the Euro catching up with the rest of the models and tomorrow will go to the gulf? Or will the rest see some weakness in the high and come back to the east coast? Stay tuned to days of our lives.......
Henry2326
Member
No comfort....they can't figure out where its going, much less how intense it will be.
Is it just me or does anyone else think that the friction of this thing blowing against the mountain range can cause it to wobble right, between the 2 islands? Looks like simple physics to me, but maybe that's too simple of an explanation.
pcbjr
Member
Thanks ... but been burned before ...
The 12Z Euro's relatively weak storm would be great news but I don't believe it because:
- The model has shear all around it under 10 knots the prior 48 hours
- The model has dewpoints of 77+ F all around it for the 48 hours leading to landfall
- It is traveling over SSTs that are very warm and OHC that is high for the prior 48 hours
- Other than flat northern Bahamas, which never have much effect, there's no land interaction the prior 48 hours. It had only grazed E Hispaniola 72 hours earlier.
- There's a high to the north, which if anything is normally conducive to strengthening for a TC traveling underneath it to the W or NW
- It is still pretty small then per the model making it easier to strengthen
- It is moving too quickly to result in much weakening from upwelling
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If there's anything model watching will teach you, its that you never really know for sure what's gonna happen. (ESPECIALLY at this range)
Just sharing info
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SnowNotHappen
Member
Dorian could actually end up being a GA/SC threat... Wouldn't it be something if it was to make landfall in the "curve" area of GA. Not many storms hit that area.