• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Over 360 without power in Raleigh now. Charlotte to Winston-Salem would be a better place for those evacuating.
 
Also, fewer people are going to track a much weakened storm. When this thing was breathing at 185mph Cat 5, possibly headed for a central Florida landfall, that's a lot more urgent, a lot more suspenseful, and a lot more riveting than a 110 mph hurricane headed out to sea that is going to "only" scrape the coastline. From a casual weather hobbyist standpoint this storm has lost its intrigue and checking in on it a couple of times a day seems to suffice.
 
Anyone know if Canada will evacuate if the latest EURO model is right? Sub 940mb. Direct landfall of the entire storm whether it’s tropical or extra?
 
The center is already farther north than any of the 12Z global runs had it so if all things stay equal as far as angle of turn then it should be left of track and that would put it onshore the beaches and inside Pamlico Sound....
 
The west side wind max the models keep showing has to be overdone right? I just cant see a 5-6 hr period of gust into the 70-80's tonight into the morning....the models all seem to have it and all have it about the same strength.....just dont know how much stock to put into these models showing that kind of wind....even if its 10-15% off its 60-70 mph for hrs....I dunno....
 
Overdone yes, but when it's every model every run now you have it at least consider it a possibility. Probably won't really know what happened until daybreak
hrrr_mslp_uv850_seus_19.png
 
Downeastnc said:
The west side wind max the models keep showing has to be overdone right? I just cant see a 5-6 hr period of gust into the 70-80's tonight into the morning....the models all seem to have it and all have it about the same strength.....just dont know how much stock to put into these models showing that kind of wind....even if its 10-15% off its 60-70 mph for hrs....I dunno....
Click to expand...

It's probably legit but where it sets up and how strong is unknown. I would say about 15% off those numbers which still would be 60-80mph gusts if HRRR and other high res models are correct.
 
Downeastnc said:
The west side wind max the models keep showing has to be overdone right? I just cant see a 5-6 hr period of gust into the 70-80's tonight into the morning....the models all seem to have it and all have it about the same strength.....just dont know how much stock to put into these models showing that kind of wind....even if its 10-15% off its 60-70 mph for hrs....I dunno....
Click to expand...
What models are you looking at? 12z ECMWF is showing a peak of 46 mph for the Greenville area
 
Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

NOAA buoy 41004 recently measured sustained winds of 85 mph (137
km/h) and a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h) in the southern eyewall of
Dorian.

The Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 88 mph (142 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 78.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top