Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Brent]

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT DORIAN HAS STRENGTHENED A
LITTLE...
...EYE NOW EAST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 79.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

 

[stormcentral]

Mesovorticies in eye? Stronger for sure

 

[Downeastnc]

ICON a smidge back west especially through NC

 

[Henry2326]

Now two major flood stages are forecasted for Charleston Harbor tomorrow....

 

[GaWx]

Still at 79.8 W at 5 PM.

 

[pcbjr]

Had a Jimmy and Shetly type rain day out of this beast today ... so glad, btw ...

 

[$alt]

Dorian still east of 80w, while the 12zHWRF had her crossing 80w by now... and 20z HRRR continues to keep her further offshore the SC coast. the 18z HRRR was basically a landfall miss for everyone it seems.

 

[Rain Cold]

I really find it hard to believe that there's something more magical about 80 W than 79.999 W.

 

[BHS1975]

According to the HRRR he should be moving nne already.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Henry2326]

I really find it hard to believe that there's something more magical about 80 W than 79.999 W.

Agreed....I guess we are going to find out, whether we like it or not.

 

[$alt]

I really find it hard to believe that there's something more magical about 80 W than 79.999 W.

For us down here it matters, and guidance bringing her in to GA through Charleston type areas had her crossing it.

 

[Henry2326]

Updated....Notice that little sliver of a gradient at Charleston to the higher levels.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Just for the archives.

 

[GaWx]

I really find it hard to believe that there's something more magical about 80 W than 79.999 W.

Like Shawn said, 80.0 just happens to be an easy benchmark to assess how model guidance is doing. Every 0.1 of a degree is 7 miles and every 7 miles can make a significant difference in what GA and lower SC is likely to experience. I addition to SAV, I’m closely following CHS for some folks and am reporting to them.
The 5PM NHC advisory, unlike the last one, doesn’t make it to 80.0 but rather stays on 79.8.

 

[Rain Cold]

For us down here it matters, and guidance bringing her in to GA through Charleston type areas had her crossing it.

Yeah, every mile makes a diff in terms of impacts. I guess what I'm thinking is that I don't see a degree of so of longitude mattering in terms of whether or not it eventually makes landfall somewhere. But I do agree, for yall's weather, you want to see it stop moving west asap.

 

[pcbjr]

Just for the archives.View attachment 23158

There's a whole web link in our Wiki that will show you each run (with or without the line), and you can pause it at will ...

https://wiki.southernwx.com/doku.php?id=tropical_models

 

[Ollie Williams]

I saw this link from Tomer Burg. Good to check out the track.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/dorian/

 

[Brick Tamland]

I really find it hard to believe that there's something more magical about 80 W than 79.999 W.

For real. And for us I think it matters more if it moves more east or more north when it does start to move north.

 

[$alt]

Brick, we wouldn't expect you to know.

 

[Brent]

Pressure still dropping

This storm refuses to die