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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Shawn said:
For us down here it matters, and guidance bringing her in to GA through Charleston type areas had her crossing it.
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I agree that we have models that demonstrate crossing 80 and the result. But we don't have models that isolate the variations to only that component nor every decimal forward and back, so we don't truly know if it's 80 on the nose or some other component in combination that is causing it.......no big deal. Just explaining my response.
 
Whatever county Apex is in, schools out tomorrow! Lol
 
There is a final lobe of vorticity associated with the incoming trough that acts to kick the system to the NE. Any delay of the trough or increased speed of Dorian would likely lead to a more NW track and obviously the opposites lead to a farther east track. Given we are 20 hours away from this process really getting underway its doubtful that you get more than a 25 mile bump in either direction but in some places that's going to be meaningful.

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Dropsonde in NW eyewall measured 145kt winds at the 897mb level. First time I’ve seen that since it was in the Bahamas. Oh and extrap pressure is crashing down about 4-5 more mb this pass to 953mb.

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FV3 and 12k NAM both shift the best divergence aloft east and northeast of the central part of NC as early as 18z tomorrow which means we could see areas of rain through mid afternoon then a lull. After that we are waiting on the moisture associated with the core of the storm along with a potential fgen band to setup on the northwest and west side of the system. There is likely to be a pretty sharp gradient in rain totals somewhere between I95 and US1 with areas west of the gradient less than 1 inch and areas just a few dozen miles east seeing 2.5-3+

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Broken024 said:
Thank you for your wisdom
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BIG FROSTY said:

Tim Buckley
@TimBuckleyWX
·
2h

This is our in-house computer model. Notice how hardly any falls in the Triad, but over 4" falls in Raleigh. This is just one model's idea of what could happen. If bands shift west, we could get a few inches of rain. If not, we get very little.

View attachment 23162
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I like the Buckley model. I need some rain although it does mess up my ots call from the beginning.
 
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