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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

As for wind I think a general 35-45 would be the gust potential around this area. There are some caveats as far as the storm ending up a little farther NW, mixing, and heavier than expected precipitation enhancing gusts a bit. I will say the NAM products do have to give you a little concern with both the 3k and 12k backing the 64kt+ 850s up into the triangle. Right now they are the most extreme but something to watch. I do believe though that areas along and east of 95 might have a fairly bumpy late Thursday through Friday morning where you really get the combination of heavy precip, closer track, stronger 850s. Might see some 60-70 type gusts in that region

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18Z HWRF and HMON still in lock step. Both moved slightly east with eyewall grazing coast slightly north of Charleston and SC landfall a little bit further. 955 and 959 respectively for HWRF and HMON. Timing a little slower to 2:00 pm same time as high tide.....
 
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18Z HWRRF and HMON both have the 00Z position nailed. HMON Both hit a wall at the coast and start NE scraping the coast.
 
So when should we watch for the turn NE, and when are we in trouble for landfall if it doesn't turn by a certain time or spot?
 
Brick Tamland said:
So when should we watch for the turn NE, and when are we in trouble for landfall if it doesn't turn by a certain time or spot?
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HMON hit the breaks with the eye right over the coast and HWRF stopped a bit off shore. HWRF still made LF at Cape Fear and OBX. so, ideally it takes a hard right well off shore.
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...30.9N 79.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.31 INCHES
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The 80 doesn't matter as much for NC it has slowly moved NNW this afternoon. The latitude gain is more of the concern for NC. The most dangerous solution is the NAM. But the way it gets there is a bit wobbly. Obviously if it gets to 32 degrees latitude that's going to be tough to miss land, but it seems like there's multiple avenues to landfall somewhere in NC. 
 

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Brick Tamland said:
So when should we watch for the turn NE, and when are we in trouble for landfall if it doesn't turn by a certain time or spot?
Click to expand...
Models have it turning between 12 and 18z tomorrow. That becomes problematic for the Charleston area. Taking the current speed and direction a turn at 12z given the current 8mph heading would put the center 34 miles offshore, if it is delayed until 18z it would landfall and be just inland. Now there will likely be some wobbles along three way and maybe a tendency to go just east of north later in the overnight

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919ef410a74f934eeb7f23b9977a2c23.jpg


Look that eye wall is getting its act together. Cat 3 by 11pm


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