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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

12z EURO didn't shift west any vis the North Carolina coast. Exact same distance just offshore. Very interesting considering it starts much more westward when it makes the turn up the coast.
 
GaWx said:
Liked for you sharing the info not for liking what it is showing. I see what you're saying. I'm about 15 miles inland and yesterday's 18Z and today's 0Z Euro had only 2.5" of rain here. The 6Z had 3" and this 12Z run suddenly has 9"!
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Haven't seen EURO rainfall but GFS on the 12z was greatly ramped up in excess of 10" now across the Tri-County of SC. I believe this is exactly what Levi Cowan talked about last night with the transition occurring due to a North flux bringing the worst weather conditions on the north and Western side of the cyclone.
 
Seeing the satellite images with street overlay on is just wow. The ocean has swallowed sections of the Bahamas.
 
My guess is a Lnadfall right smack where the GEFS has it. Where SC juts out just enough to catch it. See what EPS does
1567536101987.png
 
So have all the latest model runs today shown a landfall somewhere in NC?
 
Because of the geographic advantage of GA vs most of SC, they put GA only in a TS warning whereas to the north and south it is an H warning. If this 12Z Euro trend continues, they may very put GA in an H warning. GA is in a H watch now.
 
If you guys check out TWC and Jim's live shots.. you'd think the hurricane is coming on shore soon... with all the dry air and how far the circulation is off shore..

What. the.
 
Looks to me like the shift west early was due in part to a tad stronger WAR but then it starts breaking it down fairly quick, it that ridge is just a mb or 2 stronger or holds on a few more hours that turn could be delayed or less pronounced. We will be watching that turn like we were for it to put on the brakes in the Bahamas.
 
Tomorrow is going to be very stressful watching to see when Dorian starts to make that turn.
 
GaWx said:
Because of the geographic advantage of GA vs most of SC, they put GA only in a TS warning whereas to the north and south it is an H warning. If this 12Z Euro trend continues, they may very put GA in an H warning. GA is in a H watch now.
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No. ;)
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 78.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
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For anyone evacuating, pay attention to Crankys last tweet. Stay alert on another possible long track cyclone possibly in the same general area going to the South-East. Stay weather aware while your gone and restock on any hurricane supplies that further west inland locations may have available and take them back to the coast when it’s safe.
 
Henry2326 said:
Last 3 runs....that's what I meant about my question "is the door closing".


View attachment 23007
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All it has to do is hit cape fear on NNE heading versus scraping the capes and that makes the biggest difference for weather from Raleigh to the east. I'm in TS watches with hurricane watches one county east so 25 to 30 miles one way or the other is a big thing for us.
 
Shaggy said:
All it has to do is hit cape fear on NNE heading versus scraping the capes and that makes the biggest difference for weather from Raleigh to the east. I'm in TS watches with hurricane watches one county east so 25 to 30 miles one way or the other is a big thing for us.
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Feel your angst ... it's been 25 - 50 miles for days ... and still is ... o_O
 
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