Nice phil thanks
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
12z Navgem feeling the dig. In line with everyone else.
Cadi40
Member
I may be wrong but Dorian looks to be developing a new eye on IR.
But think Katrina...still hit with a CAT 5 storm surge despite weakening. Large storm and a lot of water nowhere to go but inland. I think the weakening is a mute point given its growing and likely to have major hurricane characteristics.
Cadi40
Member
I don’t think Dorian is going to weaken anymore than it already has, and if so it will be minimal. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t at the very least be able to reorganize itself. You guys have to take into account how long this storm has been rotating, it has so much inertia and power that it’s impacts will not stop just stop at the coast. It’s a very intense storm regardless of the category.
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Henry2326
Member
To your point, look what Harvey did as a tropical storm....
Henry2326
Member
T-2 and consensus is approaching.
NAM also looks to be more in line with other models
Shaggy
Member
From Raleigh NWS......sounds like winds are gonna be a problem not only for eastern piedmont,sandhills and coastal plains but even TS gusts into the triangle.
Late Thursday night Hurricane Dorian will be located just
northeast of Cape Fear, NC with dangerous winds continuing
across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills of North Carolina. Some
impacts could be significant with possible damage to roofing and
siding materials. Rainfall totals from Dorian will be 2 to 6
inches with locally higher amounts possible. On the northwestern
edge of Dorian rainfall amounts will quickly fall off due to
dry air being entrained from an approaching cold front. For
example, amounts across the Triad will likely only be a couple
of hundredths of an inch with 1 to 3 inches possible over the
Triad.
Late Thursday night Hurricane Dorian will be located just
northeast of Cape Fear, NC with dangerous winds continuing
across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills of North Carolina. Some
impacts could be significant with possible damage to roofing and
siding materials. Rainfall totals from Dorian will be 2 to 6
inches with locally higher amounts possible. On the northwestern
edge of Dorian rainfall amounts will quickly fall off due to
dry air being entrained from an approaching cold front. For
example, amounts across the Triad will likely only be a couple
of hundredths of an inch with 1 to 3 inches possible over the
Triad.
FWIW, NAM shifts west it is under 48hrs so not as horrible at this range
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12Z Euro is ~70 miles from where I live late tomorrow night. Solid TS force winds. 9" of rain.
To compare, Matthew was 40 miles from where I live (I had evacuated) when the highest winds near the center were 105 mph and lowest SLP was 955 mb. H winds were 60 from center and TS winds were 185 from center. I'm crossing my fingers it at least stays out this 70 mile distance.
To compare, Matthew was 40 miles from where I live (I had evacuated) when the highest winds near the center were 105 mph and lowest SLP was 955 mb. H winds were 60 from center and TS winds were 185 from center. I'm crossing my fingers it at least stays out this 70 mile distance.
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FWIW the Euro has an increase of wind over the triad. MBY seems to get fringed via rainfall but I'm a little concerned about gusty winds moving my lawn furniture.
Fortunately, the Euro tends to have winds a good bit too high over land. But I don't like seeing this, regardless.
I’ve been burnt too many times to trust euro wind maps. I’m generally expecting a swift breeze from Raleigh to Charlotte West.
pcbjr
Member
Larry,
Be safe (as with everyone else!). Let me know when it's over, and if need be I'll figure out a way to ship you an order of Sonny's!
Phil
I know everyone has a story about that one time a model was correct for their area, but real talk, Euro was very accurate with Irma up here. It picked up on the pressure gradient well.