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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

This is the GFS simulated satellite for THU offshore of Charleston... focus on the eyewall actually onshore woth a huge eye
 

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Stormsfury said:
This is the GFS simulated satellite for THU offshore of Charleston... focus on the eyewall actually onshore woth a huge eye
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High tide is at 2:00 pm.......not good.
Hard to tell but I think all the counties currently with evac orders are covered here.
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
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GaWx said:
The Euro has done well imo. It was the first model to show that long stall on runs a number of days ago that some wouldn't believe. Once it had the stall, every run afterward had it. It not getting kudos would be ridiculous and ignoring reality. OTOH, the UKMET had some awful runs into the GOM.
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The best way to compare it from a scientific/statistical standpoint is the below chart. Past 48 hours the Euro/UK are both quite close in accuracy and better than the other models by far. Here's a link if you'd like to look at some other error/bias charts.

1567534010340.png
 
UK/Euro/GFS are all on top of each other, give or take 20 miles. The 12z Euro just hugs the coastline all the way up, never makes landfall that I can see. Reminds me of Matthew track.

Correction: Makes landfall over MHX. This run is slower to, up the coast.
 
Dam, the 12Z Euro is kind of worrying me for even here. It comes within 75 miles of SAV now and is getting closer to a Matthew type track. Matthew was about 35 miles from SAV. It had been as much as 150 miles away yesterday. I didn't expect this shift and hope it goes back.

Was hoping I wouldn't have to use my well inland hotel reservations. Now my hope is lowered somewhat.

I wonder if his weakening has brought the steering so low that it has gained a sig westerly component vs the higher steering layers.
 
GaWx said:
Dam, the 12Z Euro is kind of worrying me for even here. It comes within 75 miles of SAV now and is getting closer to a Matthew type track. Matthew was about 35 miles from SAV. It had been as much as 150 miles away yesterday. I didn't expect this shift and hope it goes back.

Was hoping I wouldn't have to use my well inland hotel reservations. Now my hope is lowered somewhat.
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Notice also how the heaviest rainfall are also translating over to the north and western side of Dorian on all the guidance as well. Bodes grim for increased rain and Wind threats all along the coasts...
 
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KyloG said:
UK/Euro/GFS are all on top of each other, give or take 20 miles. The 12z Euro just hugs the coastline all the way up, never makes landfall that I can see. Reminds me of Matthew track.

Correction: Makes landfall over MHX. This run is slower to, up the coast.
Click to expand...

Yep all models have trended slower...
 
Is there a reliable source of information coming out of the bahamas? The more I think about it, the more my stomach turns. They had category 4+ winds on Grand Bahama for over 24 hours.
 
GaWx said:
Dam, the 12Z Euro is kind of worrying me for even here. It comes within 75 miles of SAV now and is getting closer to a Matthew type track. Matthew was about 35 miles from SAV. It had been as much as 150 miles away yesterday. I didn't expect this shift and hope it goes back.

Was hoping I wouldn't have to use my well inland hotel reservations. Now my hope is lowered somewhat.

I wonder if his weakening has brought the steering so low that it has gained a sig westerly component vs the higher steering layers.
Click to expand...
Yeah yesterday's Euro never had Dorian crossing 80W... this run a much different story, is getting close Larry, one model run or a trend?

1567535096599.png
 
Yeah I was just pointing out that it’s not changing the track as there’s another trough coming down keeping the ridge from building back.


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Stormsfury said:
Notice also how the heaviest rainfall are also translating over to the north and western side of Dorian on all the guidance as well. Bodes grim for increased rain and Win threats all along the coasts...
Click to expand...

Liked for you sharing the info not for liking what it is showing. I see what you're saying. I'm about 15 miles inland and yesterday's 18Z and today's 0Z Euro had only 2.5" of rain here. The 6Z had 3" and this 12Z run suddenly has 9"!
Earlier Euro runs had only TD type winds. But the 12Z run has solid TS force winds. Not a good trend.
 
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