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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
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Even for the further east tracking Euro it looks like it could potentially be some rough few hours along the immediate coast.

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Henry2326 said:
18z HRWF from Charleston through NC.....


View attachment 22908
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This is the track I am worried about, this would be rough even with a CAT 1/2 with a wind field that big....basically no power in the eastern half of NC...that said the HWRF has been the western outlier all along and there is no reason to assume this run is any different...
 
Downeastnc said:
This is the track I am worried about, this would be rough even with a CAT 1/2 with a wind field that big....basically no power in the eastern half of NC...that said the HWRF has been the western outlier all along and there is no reason to assume this run is any different...
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Rah NWS fairly concerned with an expanding wind field and scattered power outages back to the triangle due to interaction with the trough. Seems like we find a way for any cane to cause issues here, if it's not a strong one plowing into the coast, a slow crawler dumping copious amounts of rain or a transitioning system that spreads winds well inland..... we got it covered.
 
metwannabe said:
Rah NWS fairly concerned with an expanding wind field and scattered power outages back to the triangle due to interaction with the trough. Seems like we find a way for any cane to cause issues here, if it's not a strong one plowing into the coast, a slow crawler dumping copious amounts of rain or a transitioning system that spreads winds well inland..... we got it covered.
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welcome to the 1st 6 days of September ...
 
Cadi40 said:
By no means am I wishcasting, but does this increase the wind threat for inland NC?
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Depends on track but typically on a NE track along or just inland there is a wind max on the NW and W side of the center, you can see it here on the GFS over the I-95 corridor... dry air is pulled into the storm on that side and it helps mix down the winds. That's why the sustained winds are lower maybe 20-25 mph but you big rolling gust that can double or even triple that sustained speed.

I find it good to look at the 925MB winds.....those are usually around 2k ft up at standard pressure so a little lower than that in a hurricane especially closer to the center....I usually subtract a bit from them to get max gust at the surface....on the latest GFS track the 925 winds are around 65-75 knts from I-95ish east....so that would easily get gust to 50-60 at the surface IMO. For the Triangle it would be 40-50 on the east side 30-40 on the west....

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