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Tropical Hurricane Dorian


What concerns me is that these sorts of things tend to "weaken" the storm but make it grow ... "weakening" a Cat 4 or 3 but growing it to a (much?) larger Cat 2 or 3 is a bit, shall we say, disconcerting. No official discussion on this, just years of watching and sharing a thought ...
 
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Well what I saw in local weather here (Brad Nitz WSB TV) was him discussing that the "second" trough currently near Montana would be the one to definitively pick up Dorian and keep it off the GA/SC/NC Coasts, and that if Dorian did not start the NNW Movment in some 24 hours it would make a large difference in keeping it OTS,.. It was first I had heard that (second trough) stated anywhere
Here is a response to the 2nd trough....

 
What concerns me is that these sorts of things tend to "weaken" the storm but make it grow ... "weakening" a Cat 4 or 3 but growing it to a (much?) larger Cat 2 or 3 is a bit, shall we say, disconcerting. No official discussion on this, just years of watching and sharing a thought ...

Levi's concern is that the weakening from the cooler SSTs will allow for the mean steering layer to drop down. Thus, the relevant steering flow map could look much different and have more of a westerly component and this threaten an actual landfall FL. The good news is that so far the storm is still not moving back toward FL...so far.
 
What concerns me is that these sorts of things tend to "weaken" the storm but make it grow ... "weakening" a Cat 4 or 3 but growing it to a (much?) larger Cat 2 or 3 is a bit, shall we say, disconcerting. No official discussion on this, just years of watching and sharing a thought ...


Doubled the size....


 
Levi's concern is that the weakening from the cooler SSTs will allow for the mean steering layer to drop down. Thus, the relevant steering flow map could look much different and have more of a westerly component and this threaten an actual landfall FL. The good news is that so far the storm is still not moving back toward FL...so far.
Per our PM this AM ... until he is east of me moving north, no guard is down here ... storms do very strange things ...
 
Levi's concern is that the weakening from the cooler SSTs will allow for the mean steering layer to drop down. Thus, the relevant steering flow map could look much different and have more of a westerly component and this threaten an actual landfall FL. The good news is that so far the storm is still not moving back toward FL...so far.

To your and Levi's point......Watching for HRRR to finish....


 
Is it possible Dorian stalls longer or creeps and misses the trough?
 
18z HWRF showing a much expanded cyclone. This is a visual of Charleston between 12z and 18z. Its just bigger folks.....

The eye seems to slightly shift east....but it really didn't make any difference because it grew.

hwrf_mslp_uv850_05L_fh69_trend.gif
 
It should weaken from here on out but it's going to be tracking over some of the warmest waters yet.

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Yeah there is a big difference between a sheared out lopsided half a cane riding up the coast and a well organized storm....the storm the GFS has is kinda meh, the one the Euro/Ukie/ICON have pressure wise is a bit more concerning especially if it doesnt get too sheared out and can keep a solid core....even a pass through the sounds or right on the OBX could be rough as far inland as I 95.
 
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