Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[KyloG]

Full 18z EPS run compared to 12z/0z runs from earlier.

 

[ForsythSnow]

18z EPS through 84 compared to 0z/12z run from today.

View attachment 22824

That's getting close. I think we trend toward the HWRF solution of a landfall on Cape Canaveral.

 

[campamy]

Has anyone heard anything about Morgerman? His twitter hasn't been updated (obviously unable to).

 

[ForsythSnow]

Pressure back down 2 mb from last pass. Hmmmm.

 

[Metwannabe]

Full 18z EPS run compared to 12z/0z runs from earlier.

View attachment 22825

Crap

 

[ForsythSnow]

I'm starting to think this wobble is more of a move than a wobble. Still moving just south of west and recon confirms this.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Full 18z EPS run compared to 12z/0z runs from earlier.

View attachment 22825

One more shift and my god Charleston SC a Coaster hugger.

 

[Henry2326]

That's getting close. I think we trend toward the HWRF solution of a landfall on Cape Canaveral.

I agree....but the NHC has to make some timing changes to align. HWRF doesn't align in timing for Charleston, so probably downstream too. It has about a 28 hour difference.......

 

[Henry2326]

One more shift and my god Charleston SC a Coaster hugger.

I've been in the coast rider group for days now. Its quite devastating....

 

[GaWx]

Levi has made a new video:

Interesting from Levi. He thinks that the reason the HWRF keeps landfalling him near Canaveral is that it unlike the Euro and GFS is more coupled with the ocean. Because of this, the HWRF induces more cooling of the ocean due to upwelling from Dorian. That cooler water leads to more weakening than would otherwise be assumed. More weakening then makes the storm more shallow and thus brings the mean steering layer down just far enough to make the steering SE to NW rather than SSE to NNW thus pushing inland. So, ironically, a more quickly weakening storm from upwelling may actually be bad rather than good news for central and NE FL, including @pcbjr, because more quickly weakening doesn’t mean it wouldn’t still be a very strong storm (probably still cat 3+) since it is so insanely strong now. Sorry, Phil, don’t shoot the messenger.

 

[KyloG]

Crap

Exactly

Zooming in...looks like a bunch of members for GA-NC. Let’s hope for a east shift tomorrow.

 

[jackendrickwx]

I'm starting to think this wobble is more of a move than a wobble. Still moving just south of west and recon confirms this.

Yeah looking at the IR sat over the past several hours it looks like a slightly WSW track

 

[jackendrickwx]

Looks like Dorian's eye is gonna travel the length of Grand Bahama.

 

[farleydawg792]

 

[BHS1975]

Thats the worst track possible.


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[SD]

Crap

Interesting that all of the outliers almost shift to the west side of the envelope and the eastern side tightens up.

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[Henry2326]

Levi has made a new video:

Great video....much better understanding of HWRF.

 

[$alt]

I have not caught up, but it (at this point) looks like the OBX may take a good hit after getting back home and looking at recent modeling.

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES