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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

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Brent said:
Dont feel bad when it first formed someone said it would top Irma and i laughed and said no way lol

Or when we laughed at the NAM showing 906 mb near the Bahamas 3 days ago

It hasnt been a good storm to try and forecast
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It hasn't been a good storm to try ...
 
Two observations regarding Charleston:

HRWF shows the eye directly over the Charleston bay at 6:00 pm Friday. HIGH TIDE IS 3:00 pm ON FRIDAY. This could be a serious situation. The flooding would be overwhelming. Go to cat2/cat3 surge maps.

HRWF SAYS 6:00 pm Friday. NHC chart says 2:00 pm Thursday just north of that position. 28 hours difference.........I have no idea...


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Gonna try this one more time and hope this is the right layer ...
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If so ... a little ways to go before north ...
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Right now I’m thinking that Tonight and part of tomorrow will be very critical for how far West Dorian Gets. We are really in a now cast situation which you guys have done an awesome job analyzing Dorian so far. Where the speed of Dorian and how long the high lasts will be extremely critical at this point in time. I think by tomorrow evening we will know if Dorian will hit Florida and or Georgia and how west he will get. Right now whether NC or SC will get anything is still up in the Air until at least Wednesday or maybe earlier. Until then we really need to monitor the development of the Low responsible for bringing Dorian OTS on the models. We also need to pay attention to how strong the GOM and the Atlantic ULH.
 
metwannabe said:
Sorry Phil wrong layer.... this one is correct and you can see the stirring currents have collapsed, why it's slowing down

View attachment 22822
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Thanks for posting. Wow, this says it all and shows folks why Dorian can, indeed, slow down, nearly stall, and then take a sharp right turn. But we still need to make sure he will stall before FL!!
 
Timing wise for SC/NC is closer than I realized.....if the GFS is right then the center will be close enough to bring hurricane conditions on shore around Myrtle over to ILM by 9 am Thur morning...thats 3.5 days from now....the Euro is slower by a good 12 hrs though, still by this time tomorrow if the models still show a landfall in NC it will be inside of 60 hrs.....
 
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