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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

GaWx said:
At some point during the slowdown, especially when it comes close to stalling, I expect a marked drop in strength due to significant cooling of SSTs all around the storm. Maybe this is just the start of a nice weakening trend. We’ll see.
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I dont unless dry air gets in via ERC or shear picks up. It will have a steady supply of warm water pumped in while over some of the deepest warm water in the Atlantic. It wont regain the strength it is now, but it will be hard to get it below Cat 4 for a while.

h20_aQG3_latest_natl.gif
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Not that I would evacuate Charlestown, but if I did, I don’t think you would have to go that far west to be in the clear! Like a trip to Bojangles or something for half the day outside of town. The storm will be moving much quicker north east by then.
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From I-26 you are forced to Columbia (90-120 minutes away. There really isn't a lot between here and there besides Orangeburg and it's always at least a couple of days before they re-open the freeway.
 
pcbjr said:
I am 1000% confused ... That says 200 - 700 <940 which is exactly what every map I posted said (or so I think).
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Phil,
The first map you posted today was as I recall for <940 mb. But the last two were for 1000-1010 mb. I’m not sure why they are doing that.
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES
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Arcc said:
I dont unless dry air gets in via ERC or shear picks up. It will have a steady supply of warm water pumped in while over some of the deepest warm water in the Atlantic. It wont regain the strength it is now, but it will be hard to get it below Cat 4 for a while.

h20_aQG3_latest_natl.gif
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I can see it taking quite awhile to get below cat 4 with it being 55 mph stronger than the start of cat 4. So, I agree it should at least maintain 4+ for quite awhile if it stays over water. It should stay a major for at least a couple of more days if he avoids land.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Is the storm just wobbling to the south or is it now moving just south of west? I'm guessing wobble but not a good direction to wobble.
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Thought is was a wobble but last few frames look just s of due west and about to plow into Grand Bahama
 
This storm is extremely powerful and long tracking. We’ve been tracking this for over a week, it’s been spinning for a very long time. Even if it does weaken a little, it will still be a very intense storm. On another note, should inland/piedmont N.C. prepare or are we in the clear?
 
KyloG said:
Yep...trends for todays runs.

View attachment 22813
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That’s a little disconcerting but not enough to make me feel overly worried at least right now. If I lived in CHS, this would be getting my worry meter up quite a bit. Even without this, I was already getting a bit more concerned about CHS. SAV has a big advantage with tracks like this vs CHS thanks to the more protective geography.
 
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