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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Well my zone is being told to evacuate tomorrow at noon. I live right on the water. Hmmm idk what I'm gonna do.
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Same thing here sitting across from downtown, I'm giving it until at least tomorrow evening to make any decisions. It's just too unclear what the local effects might be.

My location is not far off the Ashley River but just above zone AE. No trees within striking distance of the house either.
 
Ser Pounce said:
Same thing here sitting across from downtown, I'm giving it until at least tomorrow evening to make any decisions. It's just too unclear what the local effects might be.

My location is not far off the Ashley River but just above zone AE. No trees within striking distance of the house either.
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Well ya see... I'm right on the Wadamalaw river. And I'm surrounded by huge oaks. But idk if I'm gonna go.
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Well my zone is being told to evacuate tomorrow at noon. I live right on the water. Hmmm idk what I'm gonna do.
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Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Well my zone is being told to evacuate tomorrow at noon. I live right on the water. Hmmm idk what I'm gonna do.
Click to expand...

Get out while you can. High tide on Thursday is 2:01 pm. NHC has the cone marked for 2 pm Thursday, just north of Charleston. The storm is running faster than the models so it could be there sooner. Add in the impact of King tides and you might find yourself in a real bad situation. Here is the surge map for a cat3 at high tide.

CHS_mom3.png
 
Pressure up to 915mb. Still 185mph and 5mph heading 270 degrees west
 
pcbjr said:
Understanding it is a layer high for some, this is not good ...

View attachment 22806View attachment 22807
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Phil,
As Chris said, this map is for the steering of much, much weaker systems in the 1000-1010 mb range. It is based on the 700-850 mb layer, which is ~5K-10K feet altitudes, which is shallow and which works for only weak storms. As storms get stronger, they get steered by a higher mean level in the atmosphere. The other map you posted for <940 mb hurricanes like Dorian is for very strong systems and, therefore, is based on a much higher mean steering layer in the atmosphere that is different from the 700-850 mb layer’s steering. That’s why the <940 mb maps would be much better to post.
 
Hope the brakes work, less than 150 miles from WPB
5edb233e8a65a2528ec298854d952d28.jpg


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
Bham 99 said:
I just moved to Mount Pleasant and I've never been in a hurricane on the coast before.. do they close the bridges at some point during these types of events?
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High span bridges (Ravenell, Cosgrove, ...) will close once when winds reach 40mph. With regard to evacuation, travel within 526 is not impeded. Lane reversal starts at the 26/526 interchange, but I would avoid travel on 526 with the exception of anywhere outside the city of North Charleston to avoid being caught up in any forced outbound traffic. There are a few exits open between Charleston and Columbia - the nearest I believe is near the Volvo plant (absolute outer Summerville area).
 
Sleet City USA said:
Pressure up to 915mb. Still 185mph and 5mph heading 270 degrees west
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At some point during the slowdown, especially when it comes close to stalling, I expect a marked drop in strength due to significant cooling of SSTs all around the storm. Maybe this is just the start of a nice weakening trend. We’ll see.
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
As Chris said, this map is for the steering of much, much weaker systems in the 1000-1010 mb range. It is based on the 700-850 mb layer, which is ~5K-10K feet altitudes, which is shallow and which works for only weak storms. As storms get stronger, they get steered by a higher mean level in the atmosphere. The other map you posted for <940 mb hurricanes like Dorian is for very strong systems and, therefore, is based on a much higher mean steering layer in the atmosphere that is different from the 700-850 mb layer’s steering. That’s why the <940 mb maps would be much better to post.
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Larry ... Give me a link ... Those are the only ones I have and they default to storm strength, it seems ... regardless, they are instructive and informative at least ...
 
Not that I would evacuate Charlestown, but if I did, I don’t think you would have to go that far west to be in the clear! Like a trip to Bojangles or something for half the day outside of town. The storm will be moving much quicker north east by then.
 
Bham 99 said:
I just moved to Mount Pleasant and I've never been in a hurricane on the coast before.. do they close the bridges at some point during these types of events?
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Yep...they will close them. I posted the surge map in another post for a cat 3. Take a look at your location.
 
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