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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

GaWx said:
12z GEFS: mean is the furthest east of at least the last 4 runs off FL and GA. Near most of SC not much change and maybe a tad closer upper SC/NC.
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Larry, Just hoping like all get out that the 1st team models are right ... but then I look at what happened to FSU yesterday and ....
 
I have a feeling it is going to hit the NC coast, at least the Outer Banks. It is still going west at a good pace and will not turn north soon enough.
 
pcbjr said:
Tony,
If it becomes necessary to make a beer and ice run, under the circumstances, I might even throw in a couple stogies ...
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Just stay safe, Phil. The path is not written in stone. It could go anywhere. I've had 'em come thru here with 100 mph wind gusts. Who knows how much friction would lessen a 200 mph spawn from hell, but I'm betting not much.
 
deltadog03 said:
I know its the HWRF, but is a big west shift...Prob the only model on the 12z runs to show this *so take with a big grain of salt* but it drives it near cape Canaveral on a NW heading to the GA/FL border and then North from there. At 'HR 90 now
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Dont laugh off the hwrf. It all by itself had this thing cat 5 from several days ago and was laughed off the stage. Never wavered. Also central Florida hit,target area
 
Looking at the 18Z position on the main 12Z dynamic model runs, the actual position (we're almost at 18Z now) is pretty much dead-on it appears to me. Any other opinions?
 
GaWx said:
Looking at the 18Z position on the main 12Z dynamic model runs, the actual position (we're almost at 18Z now) is pretty much dead-on it appears to me. Any other opinions?
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I would say from now until the next 48 hours is the biggest time crunch for either a loop, a stall, a change in direction or whatever. This is where the forecast gets messy.
 
GaWx said:
Looking at the 18Z position on the main 12Z dynamic model runs, the actual position (we're almost at 18Z now) is pretty much dead-on it appears to me. Any other opinions?
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Well, that's what I thought until I just saw the 12Z Euro's 18Z position, which is about 30 miles too far NNE. The Euro has it clearly north of that Bahaman island whereas it is really on the northern edge.
 
if he takes a right turn immediately before the coast, somehow he is an alien being with perceptive intelligence ... just uncanny
 
12Z Euro: Take with a grain. The 6 hour 12Z Euro position (2 PM EDT) is about 30 miles NNE of its actual position at 2 PM EDT.
 
Larry, comparing the 12z sat with the new run now, the Mon 12z position, its DEF a bit faster now vs yesterdays run. Also looks like the trof dipping down isn't as far south.
 
@48 ULL at H5 seems quicker. Maybe pulls It north faster? Or maybe gets out of the way. The last time the Low looked like that was 12z the 29 which went well inland.
 
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