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Pattern Hotober

NWS lowered Saturday's high to 64. Wonder if they'll lower it in steps or wait for further confirmation from models that the high will struggle to 60
 
GaWx said:
I wonder if (some of) these changes might be related to it having a cold bias. I have no idea.
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Not sure but if you read the report of what they are going to be doing, it's pretty specific about the changes (not that I really understand any of it lol) but some of those items would seem to potentially effect the cold bias, maybe? Although it doesn't actually mention a cold bias
 
I have no idea what all this means but it mentions the word "icing" so this has to be the cold bias issue... Lol j/k

6) The vessel icing program uses Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) as input. A decision was made to move the vessel icing program within the Unified Post Processor (UPP) and use GFS forecast skin temperature as input. The following vessel icing products will be terminated: sice.tCCz.siceg.grib2 sice.tCCz.siceg_1x1.all.grib2 sice.tCCz.siceg_akw.grib2 ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/omb/prod/sice.YYYYMMDD / https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/omb/prod/sice.YYY YMMDD https://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/omb/prod/sice.YYYYMM DD Where YYYYMMDD is year, month and day Users will find the replacement vessel icing product included as a variable (ICEG) in GFS pressure-grid products: gfs.tCCz.pgrb2.0p25.fFFF gfs.tCCz.pgrb2.0p50.fFFF gfs.tCCz.pgrb2.1p00.fFFF Available at 0.25, 0.5, and 1.0 degree resolutions. They will be disseminated to the public on the NCEP Web Services here: ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/gfs.YYYYMMDD/ CC https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/gfs.YYYY MMDD/CC https://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/gfs.YYYYMMD D/CC Where YYYYMMDD is year, month, and day, where CC is cycle, and where FFF is the forecast hour
 
Haven't seen the weekly desert report posted, so here you go.... it does not factor in any of the rains since Tuesday morning which probably took the edge off some in a few areas.

1571342814781.png
 
Can somebody more experienced than me give me the lowdown on why its going to be as cold as it is on Saturday?
Here's the GFS, which remains the coldest of all models
gfs_T2m_seus_9.png
 
GaWx said:
Walking with near ideal conditions, easily the best since mid Spring! 72 with dewpoint of 47, a light breeze, and mostly sunny. It actually feels slightly cool!
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stunning day here too, very similar temps, been soaking it up as much as I can lol windows are open too
 
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Sleet City USA said:
Can somebody more experienced than me give me the lowdown on why its going to be as cold as it is on Saturday?
Here's the GFS, which remains the coldest of all models
gfs_T2m_seus_9.png
Click to expand...
That's when it's going to be raining, right? I haven't looked at any maps other than what's posted here, so I'm going from memory in terms of when the rain will be falling. If that is indeed the case, then you probably have some insitu CAD going on, I'm guessing. Nice tropical evaporative cooling!
 
Rain Cold said:
That's when it's going to be raining, right? I haven't looked at any maps other than what's posted here, so I'm going from memory in terms of when the rain will be falling. If that is indeed the case, then you probably have some insitu CAD going on, I'm guessing. Nice tropical evaporative cooling!
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Same frame for precip
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_8.png
 
Sleet City USA said:
Can somebody more experienced than me give me the lowdown on why its going to be as cold as it is on Saturday?
Here's the GFS, which remains the coldest of all models
gfs_T2m_seus_9.png
Click to expand...
It’s the cold dry airmass already in place, plus dry colder air being pulled into the storm from the NE and the evaporative cooling, just locks it into place.
 
45 already and dropping fast. I think upper 30s are attainable.
 
SD said:
Couldn't get below 40. Meh

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
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Yeah, was colder the night before! Hit 43 last night , yawn! Now ready to get tour rain!
 
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