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Pattern Hotober

It's happening!!! LOL! Finally we get to see some wild fantasy runs.
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Wow! a few minor changes and if it were at least November, this could be an actual old fashioned FV3 blizzard. For now, I'll take a Flizzard in the mountains. Here are some hires maps to cherish when we see 70's at the end of the runs during the winter. But don't worry the soil temperature will be around 60
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Still not here. I think it's hotter today

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Dang, still showing 96 in Erwin and it's 75 at KIXA. But hey at least it's a dry heat and with low sun angle it's not really as hot as 96................
 
From what I’m hearing though channels you all are going to miss these warm days by January. It may be a chilly winter.


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by

please let it snow in October, those give us our best winters!! The sea ice growth, is already in our favor, blockbuster winter incoming!???
sno
From what I’m hearing though channels you all are going to miss these warm days by January. It may be a chilly winter.


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what we heard bout this time last year ... lol
 
Really liking this CAD tommorow, if these soundings are correct, slightly more widespread showers would be likely with
1. Nice moist layer from 925mb to 750mb
2. Some elevated instability atop the SFC inversion (MUcape) seen nicely on the equivalent pot. temperature chart
3. While it’s very weak and nearly negligible, some very weak lift from 900mb to 600mb (omega) 2FD9DE39-88D1-46D3-9DAF-B8B1591F5EB6.jpeg0F7E7868-18CE-4E38-99D6-EEBE822F4678.jpeg
 
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Really liking this CAD tommorow, if these soundings are correct, slightly more widespread showers would be likely with
1. Nice moist layer from 925mb to 750mb
2. Some elevated instability atop the SFC inversion (MUcape) seen nicely on the equivalent pot. temperature chart
3. While it’s very weak and nearly negligible, some very weak loft from 900mb to 600mb (omega) View attachment 24259View attachment 24260

Not very breezy either.




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18Z GFS drops the Arctic bomb down over the Deep South past Hr 348. Not exactly fantasy SE blizzard, but would be a welcome change to this kind of heat.
 
18z GFS LR highlights
1. A deep trough in the deep south that sits neutrally tilted at least out to 384 hrs (Figure 1)
2. Even at 2 pm, the 500-1000mb thickness column stays below freezing across NW Alabama and N Mississippi (Figure 2)
3. While the SE (NC especially) drys up, the drought keeps up, Though there is a low that forms of the coast putting NC people with AA rainfall even more above average, while the piedmont stays even more BA. (Figure 3)
1571594400-Q1yHU21LquE.png

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Awfully dry over NC and SC though. This is really starting to look like a repeat of 2001. Except for 1 storm, the winter of 2001-2002 was a dud too. Going farther, the summer of 2002 was dry and hot. The drought we are in now may be a VERY long term one.
 
18z GFS LR highlights
1. A deep trough in the deep south that sits neutrally tilted at least out to 384 hrs (Figure 1)
2. Even at 2 pm, the 500-1000mb thickness column stays below freezing across NW Alabama and N Mississippi (Figure 2)
3. While the SE (NC especially) drys up, the drought keeps up, Though there is a low that forms of the coast putting NC people with AA rainfall even more above average, while the piedmont stays even more BA. (Figure 3)
1571594400-Q1yHU21LquE.png

1571594400-dLoTGZw8erE.png
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Awesome! The next 16 days, I get .20 at best! Drought begets drought!
 
Are you sure??

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Yeah, but my trusty Weatherbug radar is blank. I wish I had a radar view other than the stupid NWS site.
 
Just got a good soaking from some heavy showers and t/storms this evening. The ridge is finally breaking! Still have to wait until Monday for the actual front though.
 
So there's legit liquid molecules mixed in with all that dust bowl clutter?
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Use correlation coefficient and you can see it. Matter of fact getting a few drops here now
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It's raining again!
 
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