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Pattern Hotober

What's really crazy is that after todays hot temps, we might be talking about the first widespread frost/freeze this time next week. Here's the day 10 dewpoints. If we can get some clear calm nights (and with the dry ground) frost is quite possible. **edit: day 11
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metwannabe said:
Shane posted above it was 96 and I think I saw it was 97 briefly, so I'm not gonna say it doesn't happen just yet
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The high thus far at KRDU is 96 or 97 based on the 5 minute obs (depending on rounding errors). It briefly cooled down to 95F at the time of the hourly report. That record is in serious jeopardy.

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metwannabe said:
Shane posted above it was 96 and I think I saw it was 97 briefly, so I'm not gonna say it doesn't happen just yet
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GaWx said:
And at KATL, it rose from 8 at 11 AM's 88 to an amazing 92 already at noon. The record high for one month earlier, Sept 3, is 98, which believe it or not, looks to be challenged! That's right, the record high for one month earlier looks to be challenged!! I can't get over this amazing stretch of wx and today may turn out to be the most amazing of the amazing stretch. Some of our grand and great grandparents likely talked about how they had to endure the great late heat of Sep., 1925. Now we'll have that same opportunity to talk about the great very late heat of 2019![/QUOT
We're reliving the 1920s.
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GaWx said:
At 1 PM yesterday, it was 4 cooler (91) and it rose 5 from there. I don't think the 98 is at all safe. We'll see.
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They've already tied the record of 98 and per 1:00 pm obs may have broken it

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I hate to say it, but this kinda feels like a "dry" heat if there ever was an NC version of one. Dew point has fallen to 59F at KCLT. Still really hot but at least you can sweat to cool off. Our extremely low soil moisture especially in the western piedmont is helping us out in a big way.
 
KATL rose another 3 last hour and it got to 95 at 1 PM! They're only 3 away from the record high of 98 for the 3rd...……...for Sept 3rd! This is certifiably insane stupid heat!
 
KATL's low this morning was 75. Should this hold up, it will be a new Oct record high low beating the 74s set the last 2 days! Before 2019, the record high low for Oct was 73.
 
And the CAD for Saturday is looking fantabulous as well, probably see NWS trim a few degrees off those high temp forecast. Near 100 today and in the 60's Saturday, I'm gonna need a coat
 
If it keeps showing up, next weekend’s frontal boundary will be more in line with my white line. With a slow, painful push
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So it’s official RDU broke its all time record of 98 for October and hit 99. 100 maybe ? 101? We will find out by this evening .
 
Up another degree to 96 at RDU at 1. Maybe we can get a 3 degree spike between hours to save us!
 
^ Or maybe it already did? How does the temp fluctuate 3-4 degrees within a 30 minute span on a day like today?
 
Lickwx said:
So it’s official RDU broke its all time record of 98 for October and hit 99. 100 maybe ? 101? We will find out by this evening .
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Yep but looks like it keeps fluctuating between 97-99, even "cooled" to 96 atm so 100 still in play but may run out of time
 
If RDU has hit 99 then places like Fayetteville must have broken over 100? Where do y’all get to see the station temps ever 5 minutes best I can do is the hourly and then every 15 minutes the sky conditions but no temps
 
Lickwx said:
If RDU has hit 99 then places like Fayetteville must have broken over 100? Where do y’all get to see the station temps ever 5 minutes best I can do is the hourly and then every 15 minutes the sky conditions but no temps
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Go here for 5 minute obs:

To change between airports just put in their 4 letter ID. KCLT, KRDU, KFAY, etc.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kclt
 
Rain Cold said:
How is it jumping around like that? Something seems weird. 95. 20 minutes later, spike up to 99. 15 minutes later, spike down to 96?
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It's normal, you just never really pay that much attention to these incremental updates.... :)
 
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ATLwxfan said:
Why?


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Just seems to be the model error at this range. Several times last year this was the case. GFS likes to take that frontal line and move it vertical. Also it pushes those cold anoms too far south.
 
Rain Cold said:
How is it jumping around like that? Something seems weird. 95. 20 minutes later, spike up to 99. 15 minutes later, spike down to 96?
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There's some inherent error in the instrument plus the occasional passing cloud &/or gust of wind which momentarily decreases insolation or raises ventilation near the sensor respectively, & depending on where the sensor is located at the airport, planes taking off or landing may significantly affect the sensor's reported temperature. Vertical mixing during a warm afternoon like this may also lead to temperature variations of a few degrees or so due to changes in the height of the mixed layer locally &/or winds.
 
Lickwx said:
If RDU has hit 99 then places like Fayetteville must have broken over 100? Where do y’all get to see the station temps ever 5 minutes best I can do is the hourly and then every 15 minutes the sky conditions but no temps
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And I also use the NWS Enhanced Data Display current obs map, it says experiential but from what I can tell has same info that Webb just shared
https://preview.weather.gov/edd/?la...=Meteorological_Observation&hvt=F&---=T&uwl=F
 
metwannabe said:
It's normal you just never really pay that much attention to these incremental updates.... :)
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That's true. I don't. I guess I was allowing for the possibility of a degree, maybe two, deviation intra-hour. But 3-4 up and then back down just seems odd, especially since we're uniformly heating the air mass, which is being influenced by no weather features.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's some inherent error in the instrument plus the occasional passing cloud &/or gust of wind which momentarily decreases insolation or raises ventilation near the sensor respectively, & depending on where the sensor is located at the airport, planes taking off or landing may significantly affect the sensor's reported temperature.
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Maybe a plane rode by or they did some welding work right underneath the sensor. :)

Anyway, I've moved onto acceptance. Hopefully, all these shenanigans lead to 100, or I'm going to be really disappointed in the effort.
 
Rain Cold said:
That's true. I don't. I guess I was allowing for the possibility of a degree, maybe two, deviation intra-hour. But 3-4 up and then back down just seems odd, especially since we're uniformly heating the air mass, which is being influenced by no weather features.
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So, for you, this record will have an asterisk beside it, well besides the normal asterisk that records have....
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's some inherent error in the instrument plus the occasional passing cloud &/or gust of wind which momentarily decreases insolation or raises ventilation near the sensor respectively, & depending on where the sensor is located at the airport, planes taking off or landing may significantly affect the sensor's reported temperature. Vertical mixing during a warm afternoon like this may also lead to temperature variations of a few degrees or so due to changes in the height of the mixed layer locally &/or winds.
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In this afternoon's case, what I think is happening here is as the mixed layer deepens w/ the heating of the day, drier air is being drawn from aloft towards the surface. This leads to lower dewpoints and some evaporative cooling that cools the surface temperature at least temporarily and enough s.t. it's detected by the sensor.

When you couple the above w/ all of the other aforementioned sources of variability in the temperature plus the inherent error in the measurements actually being collected by the sensor (this temperature sensor usually consists of a platinum resistance thermistor which is itself imperfect and exhibits non-linear variations in conductivity wrt temperature), it's not too surprising to see variations of 2-3F like this.
 
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