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Pattern Hotober

GaWx said:
The differences between the 6Z/12Z GFS and the 12Z/0Z Euro for 2 PM temps on 10/30 at ATL are absolutely astounding: 25 degrees with the Euro near 75 and the GFS near 50!!! It's not like this is 10+ days out as this is a mere 7 days!
Anyone want to bet on which comes closer? If I remember and can find this post, I'll bump it in a week.

I'll bet on the Euro coming closer and it being 65-70 at 2 PM on 10/30. Anyone else? Watch the broken clock Goofy get lucky this time lmao.
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Followup: 12Z Euro almost as warm as its prior run at ATL with ~73 at 2 PM on 10/30 vs the ~50 on the 6Z/12Z GFS. The battle lines are drawn. Who will win? Price is Right rules are not in effect to determine the winner.
 
NoSnowATL said:
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That pattern gives me flashbacks to last winter...Arctic cold locked up in the upper Midwest
 
GaWx said:
Followup: 12Z Euro almost as warm as its prior run at ATL with ~73 at 2 PM on 10/30 vs the ~50 on the 6Z/12Z GFS. The battle lines are drawn. Who will win? Price is Right rules are not in effect to determine the winner.
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I forgot to mention the less accurate CMC: it (0Z and 12Z) agrees with the Euro with ~74 at ATL at 2 PM on 10/30 fwiw.
So, we have the 6Z/12Z GFS at ~50 and the 0Z/12Z Euro/CMC ~73-75.
 
I agree it’s just time. No model war or who is right or wrong.
BirdManDoomW said:
GFS has snow 1-3” for WV, 1” western NC/TN line and wind whipped snow showers for Boone. CMC is heavy rain. EURO is well above normal temps followed by cold in early November. Coin toss as of right now but I would say snow is possible given all the moving parts it’s likely just a timing question.
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NCSNOW said:
Difference in Euro and GFS is just a timing issue. Euro gets there about 24 to 36 latter.

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It is largely timing, but timing is not a trivial issue and it is a recurring one. Slower timing leads to not just a delay but also allows for more modification of the cold airmass once it finally arrives. At ATL for example, once the cold comes in on the Euro it never gets quite as cold (lowest upper 30s on one day vs mid 30s several days on the GFS).
 
Lol! The gfs has me with 3-4” of rain a day or two ago for this weekend, now has .25 total! Whoever’s in the bullseye today, shouldn’t be too excited about that! Only brings heartache and pain
 
Is a thread going to be made for this possible tropical low? And severe weather/rain Screenshot_20191023-144220_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Tarheel1 said:
Lol! The gfs has me with 3-4” of rain a day or two ago for this weekend, now has .25 total! Whoever’s in the bullseye today, shouldn’t be too excited about that! Only brings heartache and pain
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Plenty of rain to go around in the SE over the next week.

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