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Pattern Hotober

NoSnowATL said:
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I knew I’d seen that map somewhere before. @Rain Cold ’s 2019/2020 call map ? ? we’re not worthy
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GaWx said:
I assume you're not being serious, but in case you are I think that's much too warm in the SE as that is similar to last year's winter. The SER is still in play, but I'd cool it by 2-3 in the SE.
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Really? How so?
 
snowcool776 said:
Really? How so?
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The warmest eq Pacific SST anomalies are slightly further east this year (near Dateline vs Indonesia). Also, that would be another very warm winter. The odds are that it won't be that warm again, especailly if we get another weak Nino. That was by a good margin the warmest El Nino on record for the SE. Another thing is that I don't think the Atlantic is quite as warm this year.
 
GaWx said:
The warmest eq Pacific SST anomalies are slightly further east this year (near Dateline vs Indonesia). Also, that would be another very warm winter. The odds are that it won't be that warm again, especailly if we get another weak Nino. That was by a good margin the warmest El Nino on record for the SE. Another thing is that I don't think the Atlantic is quite as warm this year.
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Oh okay. So that means we will not have a cold winter?
 
GFS remains frigid around Halloween. Afternoon highs in the 40s in most of NC, 50s/60s for SC/GA/AL/MS. Even @pcbjr struggles to 75. As for morning lows on 11/1, looky here
gfs_T2m_seus_36.png

Let's hope. Also, towards the end of the 12z run of ICON, it did show a similar cold push.

Outside of that, GFS agrees on an AN start to next week, followed by the Halloween cold plunge. Rain-wise, looking pretty good through hr240
gfs_apcpn_seus_40.png
 
Sleet City USA said:
GFS remains frigid around Halloween. Afternoon highs in the 40s in most of NC, 50s/60s for SC/GA/AL/MS. Even @pcbjr struggles to 75. As for morning lows on 11/1, looky here
gfs_T2m_seus_36.png

Let's hope. Also, towards the end of the 12z run of ICON, it did show a similar cold push.

Outside of that, GFS agrees on an AN start to next week, followed by the Halloween cold plunge. Rain-wise, looking pretty good through hr240
gfs_apcpn_seus_40.png
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CPC is on board with approaching BN temps, but still slower than GFS/GEFS
814temp.new.gif

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_10.png

Interesting comparison here. Top is CPC 8-14 day temp outlook, bottom is the morning of 11/1 temp anomalies from EPS. Pretty similar, wouldn't y'all agree?

Also, 12z GEFS is faster with the cold just like its op run.
 
Sleet City USA said:
CPC is on board with approaching BN temps, but still slower than GFS/GEFS
814temp.new.gif

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_10.png

Interesting comparison here. Top is CPC 8-14 day temp outlook, bottom is the morning of 11/1 temp anomalies from EPS. Pretty similar, wouldn't y'all agree?

Also, 12z GEFS is faster with the cold just like its op run.
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Carolinas looking toasty! That cold will take 2-3 extra days to get over the mountains, if at all
 
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