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Pattern Hotober

Still ended up a dud, however, still very close. Interesting trends over the past day. Wonder if 06z will continue the trend?
C403D2FA-DA72-4CB2-A838-98B9EFE034D2.gif
 
LOOKS LIKE TX IS IN FOR A LONG NIGHT

810
FXUS64 KFWD 210506
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2019


MESOSCALE UPDATE

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT RESULTED IN MULTIPLE TORNADO REPORTS, AND
DOZENS OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL REPORTS WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES SHORTLY. TO THE WEST, A SQUALL LINE
STRETCHES FROM SHERMAN TO MINERAL WELLS TO BROWNWOOD. THE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE FROM THE KFWS WSR-88D SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WITH WINDS OF OVER 60 KNOTS AT JUST 2,000 FEET. ADDITIONALLY,
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, STRONG INSTABILITY
IS STILL PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING SEVERAL HOURS AGO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR
AND LARGE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THIS SQUALL LINE TO BE SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH
AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.

REGARDING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL, THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND LARGE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW QLCS
TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
SQUALL LINE IS ABLE TO ORIENT ITSELF PERPENDICULAR TO THE WESTERLY
TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR VECTORS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
CASE IN CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH A STRONG BOWING SEGMENT ALREADY NOTED
WITHIN THE LINE FROM NEAR STEPHENVILLE TO BROWNWOOD. A REAR-INFLOW
JET ALSO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT, AND POTENTIAL FOR QLCS TORNADOES FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF A STEPHENVILLE TO WACO LINE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH 2:00 A.M. CDT. A NEW TORNADO WATCH, OR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH, MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

37

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SPC Day One Outlook:
A080522F-05C7-4FA2-BBEA-E30D8EDC576E.gif
...Lower MS and OH Valleys...central Gulf Coast...
An extensive line of thunderstorms will be ongoing along the cold
front early Monday morning, from IL to east TX. Damaging winds or a
brief tornado will be possible with these linear storms, owing to
sufficient CAPE in place and effective SRH over 300 m2/s2. As the
moist plume narrows to the north, the greatest threat for the rest
of the day will be over LA and MS where upper 60s to low 70s F
dewpoints will maintain MLCAPE of at least 500 J/kg, despite
relatively warm midlevel temperatures and limited heating. Still,
veering winds with height with effective SRH around 200 m2/s2 may
support a supercell with a brief tornado or damaging wind gust.

Later in the day and through the evening, southerly surface winds
will bring low to mid 70s F dewpoints northward across southern AL
and the FL Panhandle. This may support a few strong storms as the
front continues east, beneath 50 to 60 kt mid to upper flow.
Click to expand...

SPC Day Two Outlook:
485A95ED-74A2-4069-A518-D56722990EBD.gif

...Parts of southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard...
Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday, ahead
of the cold front, in the presence of at least modestly sheared and
strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, from the lee of the
southern Appalachians through northern Florida.

Coupled with the development of the frontal wave/cyclone, models
indicate an influx of seasonably moist air (including surface dew
points near 70F) across the Carolina coastal plain into the piedmont
by early afternoon. Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may
not be particularly steep, it appears that this still may contribute
to mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. In the presence of south to
southwesterly wind fields including 30-40+ kt around 850 mb, and
50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the environment
could become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

Mid/upper support for large-scale ascent across the Carolinas could
be glancing, but lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm
advection may be conducive to the initiation of discrete
thunderstorms by midday, including a few supercell structures, with
potential for at least some upscale growth across the North Carolina
coastal plain through Tuesday afternoon. This may be accompanied by
the risk for a couple of tornadoes, in additional to potentially
damaging wind gusts.
Click to expand...
 
GFS says happy (chilly) halloween
gfs_T2ma_us_43.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
Still ended up a dud, however, still very close. Interesting trends over the past day. Wonder if 06z will continue the trend?
View attachment 24743
Click to expand...
06z thoughts: Good news, the high continued the trend of being more suppressed, we get a stronger cold push. Bad news, at H5 the -PNA (Surprisingly helps this setup) the low out west doesn't dig as negatively and misses an ULL crucial for ramping up the surface low, we still get an interesting bowling ball like low that knocks the HP in the east (Euro doesn't separate the SS and NS so it ends up with 1 big trough in the west), Luckily that has been consistent since 18z yesterday. Nevertheless the system is weaker and doesn't phase with the northern stream, *Pay attention to the SW, Low is in Texas at 00z, 06 is strung out somewhere in CA very flat*
06z
gfs_z500_vort_us_44.png

00z
gfs_z500_vort_us_45.png

All in all a better run. I don't know why I'm even analysing this, maybe It's just to spice things up. It wouldn't take much to make this run more interesting. 12z will be worth watching. We have an Increasing cold air source, however the low is non-existent this run. This is all taking Verbatim, not a single GEFS, (does have an interesting pattern or track, however not cold enough for frozen precip) or EPS member gives this a chance and most likely is the FV3 on steroids, however just thinking out loud. I will make note that there is a signal at least on the FV3 for the past few runs for an interesting pattern going ahead into the first week of November.
Bottom line: Stronger Cold air source, Worse low pressure development.
At least we have consistency :)
 
Last edited:
Trending weaker and weaker! 12z GFS says weak, scattered showers here, at best tomorrow! Friday and Saturday event looking huge!!!!
 
Why are folks worried about warm weather so much in October and November? I'd rather it be warm now and then transition to cold in December and set the stage for January and February than for it to be cold now.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why are folks worried about warm weather so much in October and November? I'd rather it be warm now and then transition to cold in December and set the stage for January and February than for it to be cold now.
Click to expand...
If I have learned anything the past few years, is that there is no "transitions" or "stage setting" anymore. It's been hot the last couple Octobers and Novembers, and guess what... Its still a very warm winter overall. I don't think it has nearly as much correlation as folks want to believe.
 
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