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Pattern Hotober

GFS broke! 95% of this is Fri-Sunday, Mon night Tuesday event here looks like .2 at best here! ?5122F769-DFC5-4B29-8E25-6445505137A1.png
 
Crazy how the gfs been very consistent with a trough in the east its entirely run. As Webb mention, ashame we are wasting this great pattern in November. Pattern looks ripe for something end of month into November
 
accu35 said:
Crazy how the gfs been very consistent with a trough in the east its entirely run. As Webb mention, ashame we are wasting this great pattern in November. Pattern looks ripe for something end of month into November
Click to expand...
It won't verify, don't worry. It's the GFS remember? Always shows us what we want, takes our money and runs. It rarely delivers.
 
FOR TOMORROW'S SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM NWS BMX


.LONG TERM...
/UPDATED AT 0339 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019/
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 12Z MONDAY AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. THERE IS VERY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO ALABAMA.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. MODELS CANNOT AGREE ON EXACTLY
HOW MUCH FOCUS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH AND
TOWARD THE INCREASINGLY INFLUENTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE.
THIS COMPLICATED SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A MESSY SITUATION WITH A
NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT FOR NOW THE MARGINAL RISK
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
AFFECTED BY A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
THE NON-ZERO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. THE TIMING OF THE THREAT HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED FASTER BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE, ARRIVING AROUND
NOON IN THE NORTHWEST AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINANT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

87/GRANTHAM
 
accu35 said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_47.png
18z happy hour at its best
Click to expand...
Wondering if I should stay up for the 0Z runs? Haha nah just kidding. Too early for all that. ?
 
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