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Learning Global Warming facts and fiction

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GaWx said:
Why have Arctic met. autumns & winters been so consistently warmer than normal since 2005 but Arctic mid to late met. springs and summers haven't warmed at all? Why hasn't it been even a little warmer than normal in the Arctic May-August since 2005? Shouldn't warmth carry over to some extent? It hasn't been doing that at all!

Does or doesn't this pattern of anomalies by month give us any hint as to the % of GW caused by AGW vs natural causes? JB thinks the summers not being warmer than normal means natural reasons rather than AGW have been the main GW driver but JB is so biased anti-AGW that I don't trust him. Is there any chance he's right? I honestly don't follow his connecting Arctic summers not being warm to AGW not being the main driver but I suppose that could be due to my lack of knowledge vs his. But again, his strong bias makes me quite skeptical.


Here is the link to very easy to see year by year Arctic temperature anomalies since 1958:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

**Edited: added JB related comments.

*Additional edit: By the way, JB has been harping on CO2 rising due to warmer oceans rather than higher CO2 leading to GW. Is there any chance he's right rather than it just being his anti-AGW bias talking?
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Here's the way I see it ..... Climate change is happening. There is nobody in their right mind going to deny that. The question then becomes, how much has been caused by man vs. natural climate variations. There has been so much political involvement into the science, that the data can't be trusted. I have given up on the truth coming out anytime soon.
With higher CO2 levels, it's like solving the "chicken and egg" problem. As for me,I will just sit back, read, and listen to what everyone has to say while we await the effects of the solar minimum. I am curious to know if it will have any effect on the problem we face.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the trend in Summer sea ice is pretty blatantly on the side of disappearing?

'Since 2005...' seems like a small sample size for comparing summer mean temps for such a large area. Not trying to argue, it's an intriguing point..
 
whamby said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the trend in Summer sea ice is pretty blatantly on the side of disappearing?

'Since 2005...' seems like a small sample size for comparing summer mean temps for such a large area. Not trying to argue, it's an intriguing point..
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Yeap. I read an article in this months Scientific American that said it’s looking like it will be gone by 2040. I think it’s already playing havoc with all this blocking going on lately.
 
whamby said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the trend in Summer sea ice is pretty blatantly on the side of disappearing?

'Since 2005...' seems like a small sample size for comparing summer mean temps for such a large area. Not trying to argue, it's an intriguing point..
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I don't think it (12 years), especially because we're considering a large area, is a small sample in this case. Have you clicked on each year since 2005? If you haven't, look at how warm have been the left side and right side of the graphs year in and year out. Then look at how each and every summer returns to near the normal line and hangs around there til until around Sep 1. This pattern looks statistically quite significant to me. I don't see how it could be random.
 
Here's something quite interesting for KATL:
- Only ONE summer hitting 100+ 1888-1924 (3% of the summers)
- 12 summers hitting 100+ 1925-1954 (40%)
- NO summers hitting 100+ 1955-1979 (0%)
- 9 summers hitting 100+ 1980-2015 (25%)

Note the distinct multi-decadal shifts that appear to correlate well with global temperatures! It may or may not be a coincidence, but the sun was fairly quiet overall very late 1800s to very early 1900s. Also, ATL got much more wintry precip. then than in any other period and was colder in Feb. Global temp.'s dipped some then. Then there was distinct global warming 1920's-1950s as well as a big drop in Atlanta snowfall. The 1960s to 1970s also saw a global temp drop. followed by a global temp rise 1980s-2015. Coincidences?

Edit: I'm noting what appears to be a connection to multi-decadal PDO cycles but is that just coincidence? If not, there may be a correlation of ATL 100+ summers with +PDO cycles interestingly enough.

Regardless of the cause, it is fascinating that ATL can go only one summer with 100+ for 37 years followed by nearly every other summer with 100+ for 30 years followed by none the next 25. This almost has to have been caused by multi-decadal cycles.
 
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GaWx said:
Here's something quite interesting for KATL:
- Only ONE summer hitting 100+ 1888-1924 (3% of the summers)
- 12 summers hitting 100+ 1925-1954 (40%)
- NO summers hitting 100+ 1955-1979 (0%)
- 9 summers hitting 100+ 1980-2015 (25%)

Note the distinct multi-decadal shifts that appear to correlate well with global temperatures! It may or may not be a coincidence, but the sun was fairly quiet overall very late 1800s to very early 1900s. Also, ATL got much more wintry precip. then than in any other period and was colder in Feb. Global temp.'s dipped some then. Then there was distinct global warming 1920's-1950s as well as a big drop in Atlanta snowfall. The 1960s to 1970s also saw a global temp drop. followed by a global temp rise 1980s-2015. Coincidences?

Edit: I'm noting what appears to be a connection to multi-decadal PDO cycles but is that just coincidence? If not, there may be a correlation of ATL 100+ summers with +PDO cycles interestingly enough.

Regardless of the cause, it is fascinating that ATL can go only one summer with 100+ for 37 years followed by nearly every other summer with 100+ for 30 years followed by none the next 25. This almost has to have been caused by multi-decadal cycles.
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Larry,
We can have agendas (or not, in my case) about cause and effect, but recurring cycles are a truly great indicator,
Thanks for the data!
Best!
Curmudgeon Phil

PS - I bought four $2.00 lottery tix on a whim and won $27.00 (something on each); so I took $8.00 and bought 4 more ... nothing ... everything works in a cycle, IMHO ... :confused:
 
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BHS1975 said:
Yeap. I read an article in this months Scientific American that said it’s looking like it will be gone by 2040. I think it’s already playing havoc with all this blocking going on lately.
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Interestingly enough predictions like this were made 10-20 years ago about present day and it hasn’t happened. Also the ice around Greenland and the Arctic is pretty high compared with previous years. Check these out.

Greenland ice anomaly, second image shows it is way above recent years and near the top end of the mean from 1981-2010.
upload_2018-6-22_23-19-25.png

Now check out the arctic sea ice volume. Again it is higher than most recent years except 2014 which it is almost identical to right now.
upload_2018-6-22_23-21-1.png
 
It’s pretty clear to me something globally is going on as ice levels in the Arctic, Antarctic and Greenland have seen nice gains this year. In fact the Antarctic is right at the 1981-2010 average, Greenland is near record levels for the 1981-2010 years and the Arctic is just a smidge behind 2014 and well ahead of other years. I thought all the ice and snow would be gone by now, you know, that’s what the “experts” and climate models said would happen :weenie:
83A11A82-4AEE-421B-AC04-5FF8FEE69AF8.jpeg 2413F9E6-2B0E-4F6F-8110-0C08EB6132BE.jpeg F5F1CA76-576E-46DD-87F6-6CB3412D28F0.png
 
snowlover91 said:
It’s pretty clear to me something globally is going on as ice levels in the Arctic, Antarctic and Greenland have seen nice gains this year. In fact the Antarctic is right at the 1981-2010 average, Greenland is near record levels for the 1981-2010 years and the Arctic is just a smidge behind 2014 and well ahead of other years. I thought all the ice and snow would be gone by now, you know, that’s what the “experts” and climate models said would happen

It's where I haven't mowed in 3 weeks due to the ongoing drought in my backyard. Lawnmower emissions way down lol.
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snowlover91 said:
It’s pretty clear to me something globally is going on as ice levels in the Arctic, Antarctic and Greenland have seen nice gains this year. In fact the Antarctic is right at the 1981-2010 average, Greenland is near record levels for the 1981-2010 years and the Arctic is just a smidge behind 2014 and well ahead of other years. I thought all the ice and snow would be gone by now, you know, that’s what the “experts” and climate models said would happen :weenie:
View attachment 5443 View attachment 5444 View attachment 5445
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Cherry pick much? The long term trend which is what matters is still dropping like a rock.

9e68475811576620186d25472e5003ab.png





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BHS1975 said:
Cherry pick much? The long term trend which is what matters is still dropping like a rock.

9e68475811576620186d25472e5003ab.png





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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You missed my point entirely. There are signs that the melting and loss of ice each year is reversing. Look at your chart for example, from 2009-10 to present there has been little loss if not a small gain in Arctic ice coverage. Greenland is seeing an usually high SMB gain this year and the Antarctic ice is very close to the 1981-2010 average.

It’s clear that the Antarctic ice is normal right now. Greenland has seen far less melting and more SMB gain than usual and the Arctic is showing signs of reversing the downtrend or stabilizing. Ocean currents and solar influences are the main drivers at play IMO. Our climate works in cycles of decades, centuries and even larger scale cooling/warming periods over thousands of years.
 
snowlover91 said:
You missed my point entirely. There are signs that the melting and loss of ice each year is reversing. Look at your chart for example, from 2009-10 to present there has been little loss if not a small gain in Arctic ice coverage. Greenland is seeing an usually high SMB gain this year and the Antarctic ice is very close to the 1981-2010 average.

It’s clear that the Antarctic ice is normal right now. Greenland has seen far less melting and more SMB gain than usual and the Arctic is showing signs of reversing the downtrend or stabilizing. Ocean currents and solar influences are the main drivers at play IMO. Our climate works in cycles of decades, centuries and even larger scale cooling/warming periods over thousands of years.
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Agree, we have seen some very encouraging signs this year. Question is ..... can we continue this trend or is it just a blip on the radar?
 
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