Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GFS is usually too overzealous w/ CA convection and TCG so I'd take any of the GFS forecasts w/ salt nor take them too seriously at least this far in advance. My post above shows all major NWP guidance showing the MJO going into phase 8-1 as we get into early October. You should understand however that this may not be a "true" MJO pulse (at least initially) in the sense that the leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions that comprise the MJO are actually just projecting onto the CA monsoon and not an MJO event propagating from the Pacific into the Western Hemisphere. Whether the MJO is "real" or not doesn't actually change the eventual result that much in this case. (I'll just mention that here, EOFs in a hand-wavy sense are essentially the main spatial patterns in meridional wind, zonal wind, & OLR in the tropics (20S-20N) derived from observations, and these same fields in real-time are then projected onto the EOFs, how well the real-time fields match the EOFs gives you a number which is then normalized and calculated to produce the MJO index.)
