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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png
Well this for a start. GFS has been honking at some sort of an storm in gulf past few runs.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png
Ok, getting little excited lol. Heres another run from the 6zgfs
 
Even though the storm is at hour 384 it looks like pressure dropped even more, moving north over the ArkLaMiss.
 
This, of course, might be real. However, the GFS may very well be showing a fake Caribbean/Gulf storm over and over, especially considering how far out it still is in forecast time. The GFS is notorious for showing fake W Caribbean geneses even after having many runs in a row with a forecasted storm without time slippage. I've seen it and documented it before. Don't let the GFS' persistence fool you into thinking this must be real. I'm going with "it may be real but it could easily be another one of its fakes". Climo, especially in oncoming El Niño years (we may or may not be in an oncoming El Niño year), favors this area for genesis in mid June. This is about the only time of the season that has increased genesis potential in association with an oncoming El Niño.
 
Wont post image on 12z gfs but the Low is there. The signs are there ATM with a storm signal some sort. Usually homegrown storms likes to birth right here locally around June/July. As Larry pointed out this could be real or fake. Im just ready for some action.
 
Hmmm.... D10 I know but maybe onto something or on something. GFS and Euro images below, does look like lowering pressures in the western Caribbean around that time

gfs_mslp_wind_watl_41.png

gfs_z500aNorm_watl_41.png

ecmwf_z500aNorm_watl_11.png
 
metwannabe said:
Hmmm.... D10 I know but maybe onto something or on something. GFS and Euro images below, does look like lowering pressures in the western Caribbean around that time

gfs_mslp_wind_watl_41.png

gfs_z500aNorm_watl_41.png

ecmwf_z500aNorm_watl_11.png
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I noticed the Euro is showimg lower pressures. If we see a strong low on the Euro in the next few days we could be looking at something, or not.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I noticed the Euro is showimg lower pressures. If we see a strong low on the Euro in the next few days we could be looking at something, or not.
Click to expand...
Just about all the models show something of an storm some sort.
interesting times ahead.
 
metwannabe said:
0z GFS still showing something and the Euro still shows lowering pressures but dang it's still 10 days out
Click to expand...
Yep, all models suggesting something as of now, though the GFS's path has changed more towards Mexico for now. If the update for the worse hadn't happened I would be saying one is likely to form, but because it did we can only guess whether or not it will.
 
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