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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

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Well this for a start. GFS has been honking at some sort of an storm in gulf past few runs.
 
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Ok, getting little excited lol. Heres another run from the 6zgfs
 
Might not be much but its something
 
Even though the storm is at hour 384 it looks like pressure dropped even more, moving north over the ArkLaMiss.
 
This, of course, might be real. However, the GFS may very well be showing a fake Caribbean/Gulf storm over and over, especially considering how far out it still is in forecast time. The GFS is notorious for showing fake W Caribbean geneses even after having many runs in a row with a forecasted storm without time slippage. I've seen it and documented it before. Don't let the GFS' persistence fool you into thinking this must be real. I'm going with "it may be real but it could easily be another one of its fakes". Climo, especially in oncoming El Niño years (we may or may not be in an oncoming El Niño year), favors this area for genesis in mid June. This is about the only time of the season that has increased genesis potential in association with an oncoming El Niño.
 
Wont post image on 12z gfs but the Low is there. The signs are there ATM with a storm signal some sort. Usually homegrown storms likes to birth right here locally around June/July. As Larry pointed out this could be real or fake. Im just ready for some action.
 
Hmmm.... D10 I know but maybe onto something or on something. GFS and Euro images below, does look like lowering pressures in the western Caribbean around that time

gfs_mslp_wind_watl_41.png

gfs_z500aNorm_watl_41.png

ecmwf_z500aNorm_watl_11.png
 
metwannabe said:
Hmmm.... D10 I know but maybe onto something or on something. GFS and Euro images below, does look like lowering pressures in the western Caribbean around that time

gfs_mslp_wind_watl_41.png

gfs_z500aNorm_watl_41.png

ecmwf_z500aNorm_watl_11.png
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I noticed the Euro is showimg lower pressures. If we see a strong low on the Euro in the next few days we could be looking at something, or not.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I noticed the Euro is showimg lower pressures. If we see a strong low on the Euro in the next few days we could be looking at something, or not.
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Just about all the models show something of an storm some sort.
interesting times ahead.
 
0z GFS still showing something and the Euro still shows lowering pressures but dang it's still 10 days out
 
metwannabe said:
0z GFS still showing something and the Euro still shows lowering pressures but dang it's still 10 days out
Click to expand...
Yep, all models suggesting something as of now, though the GFS's path has changed more towards Mexico for now. If the update for the worse hadn't happened I would be saying one is likely to form, but because it did we can only guess whether or not it will.
 
I think it is a fantasy storm. If it still shows it (which I doubt it) we may have to keep an eye on it.
 
Snowfan said:
I think it is a fantasy storm. If it still shows it (which I doubt it) we may have to keep an eye on it.
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Lol, its been showing it for about a week now but still stuck in the 300 range.
 
I been watching these runs for about a week now, I do believe something will form in gulf but not sure about strength wize
 
Accuweather and few other sites are interested in next weeks potential storm. Something to watch closely around the 19/20th time frame.
 
The last two runs of the EPS fwiw favor a low to form somewhere around the Yucatan 6/18-20 and to then move WNW into MX ~6/22 well south of S TX. OTOH, recent GEFS means have been significantly further north with more members than the EPS suggesting a potential threat to the CONUS. The "Crazy Uncle" (CMC) ens mean implies even more uncertainty with even more spread sort of implying that the NE GOM US coast threat is higher vs what the GEFS suggests and way higher than what the EPS suggests.
 
GaWx said:
The last two runs of the EPS fwiw favor a low to form somewhere around the Yucatan 6/18-20 and to then move WNW into MX ~6/22 well south of S TX. OTOH, recent GEFS means have been significantly further north with more members than the EPS suggesting a potential threat to the CONUS. The "Crazy Uncle" (CMC) ens mean implies even more uncertainty with even more spread sort of implying that the NE GOM US coast threat is higher vs what the GEFS suggests and way higher than what the EPS suggests.
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Welcome to optical tropical weather ... though, Larry, you need no "welcome"!
PS - You could swim the bamboo today ... LOL
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
534 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2017
Alachua FL-
534 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2017
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas
for...
Central Alachua County in northern Florida...
* Until 700 PM EDT
* At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding.
Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor flooding in
the advisory area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen in
some locations...with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Gainesville and University Of Florida.
Best!
Phil
 
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If you look at the end of the HWRF and GFDL models for Calvin in the Pacific, you can see a low spin up in the Pacific, then cross into the Caribbean and become a strong low there. I think this will be our next storm.
 
pcbjr said:
Agree, and you beat me to the punch on the post!
Good work, Mate! :cool:
Phil

PS -
It is the CMC, but it sort of shows the same thing:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2017061312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Basically the current model analysis shows:
GFS, ECMWF, JMA : Lower Gulf over Yucatan Peninsula, then West to Mexico.
CMC : North Through Yucatan Peninsula to Northern Gulf coast, then Eastward over land.
HWRF and GFDL : Development in Caribbean.
NAVEGEM: Isolated low, but another system comes from Eastern Caribbean and moves up Florida from the south, though weak.

The CMC and GFS has held its solutions pretty well over the past few days, and the Euro favors the GFS track.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Basically the current model analysis shows:
GFS, ECMWF, JMA : Lower Gulf over Yucatan Peninsula, then West to Mexico.
CMC : North Through Yucatan Peninsula to Northern Gulf coast, then Eastward over land.
HWRF and GFDL : Development in Caribbean.
NAVEGEM: Isolated low, but another system comes from Eastern Caribbean and moves up Florida from the south, though weak.

The CMC and GFS has held its solutions pretty well over the past few days, and the Euro favors the GFS track.
Click to expand...
Gonna be an interesting watch for a bit ... awfully early but a lot of suggestions from various sources.

Plenty of source material in the Tropical>Models in Wiki ...

For example: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
loop the models by the day - upper left - for an interesting possible scenario ...
 
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12z gfs says meh to the gulf system the CMC goes nuts which is nothing new . And the euro takes a weak system into Mexico


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Storm5 said:
12z gfs says meh to the gulf system the CMC goes nuts which is nothing new . And the euro takes a weak system into Mexico


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Click to expand...

All in for the crazy uncle...LOL


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