Misc General Banter Thread

[Parker]

Spann shaking in his boots this morning

Still giving it no shot. Maybe a flurry in south Alabama, no impact.

 

[jrips27]

View attachment 183215
Still giving it no shot. Maybe a flurry in south Alabama, no impact.

He may get lucky and be right, but to speak in absolutes about weather is almost never a good idea

 

[rburrel2]

I’ve spent way too much time microanalyzing the 06z ukmet at hr66. But I’m convinced it would have been way west with everything. Probably big snows for Georgia and eastern tennessee.

 

[jrips27]

I’ve spent way too much time microanalyzing the 06z ukmet at hr66. But I’m convinced it would have been way west with everything. Probably big snows for Georgia and eastern tennessee.

Does it only go out to 66?

 

[SD]

 

[Stevo24]

I’ve spent way too much time microanalyzing the 06z ukmet at hr66. But I’m convinced it would have been way west with everything. Probably big snows for Georgia and eastern tennessee.

Well what happens with the usptate then

 

[rburrel2]

Well what happens with the usptate then

This is just conjecture, but probably a hammer job for us… or maybe flirting with being too warm.

Either way, I like to see it bc I’m way more concerned about late development missing us to the east right now.

 

[rburrel2]

Also… 06z Nam is super far west with the trough/energy too. For whatever that’s worth

 

[xshare]

Also… 06z Nam is super far west with the trough/energy too. For whatever that’s worth

Way further west than the RDPS. Crazy to not have any idea yet

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

I work remote and work IT for in house employees, ..... Login this AM and there is 117 calls in que, normally 5-10 in que (on hold) until 9-10AM when it cools off. If anyone uses the Microsoft Authenticator its down for now. I am going back to bed , gonna set an alarm for 3 min and try again.

Also, Yall remember the good days when right now some joker would be in the thread with all the NW trend talk "Congrats Roanoke, or Congrats WV" "If I was in SE Ohio in be licking my chops" ....... someone post it to make it feel nostalgic

 

[rburrel2]

I work remote and work IT for in house employees, ..... Login this AM and there is 117 calls in que, normally 5-10 in que (on hold) until 9-10AM when it cools off. If anyone uses the Microsoft Authenticator its down for now. I am going back to bed , gonna set an alarm for 3 min and try again.

Also, Yall remember the good days when right now some joker would be in the thread with all the NW trend talk "Congrats Roanoke, or Congrats WV" "If I was in SE Ohio in be licking my chops" ....... someone post it to make it feel nostalgic

Everybody’s gun shy after the Florida mauler never moved an inch north for 5 straight days last year.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Holy trends this morning

GFS with another threat around 1/22-1/23


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Also here is my beautiful CAD storm

 

[Round Oak Weather]

It’ll be classic if we wishcash this northwest and turn it into a rain storm for 85 south and Frosty gets a foot.

I think I would riot on the southernwx board if that happened. Last year I managed 1.5 in of snow out of that storm but watching one go north is miserable.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Tbh I would definitely be concerned about north trends with this one just because I would be surprised if the coast got hammered again in back to back years.

Either way, I'm hoping this trends to something I can enjoy at home, but if not, I may well try to target it like I should've targeted the 2018 coastal when I had more energy if a nice 2-3 inch snow is within an hour drive. (I bought my first car with my $ last month, so I don't see why not)

 

[BrickTamland]

 

[Arcc]

I’ve spent way too much time microanalyzing the 06z ukmet at hr66. But I’m convinced it would have been way west with everything. Probably big snows for Georgia and eastern tennessee.

Watching that vort trend westward over the great lakes just screams like this joker is gonna tilt negative faster. Y'all may get an absolute bomb off the coast.

 

[LukeBarrette]

lol Tony pann trying to phase the two pieces of energy. Just not how that northern piece works in this scenario
That northern piece is more of a suppressor and can not be phased

 

[Bigedd09]

Not much snow cover to our north. That may make surface temps a touch warmer


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[Brent]

Meanwhile in Colorado

 

[weather nerd]

Seems i95 in SC will end up being the cutoff when all's said and done

 

[SD]

lol Tony pann trying to phase the two pieces of energy. Just not how that northern piece works in this scenario
That northern piece is more of a suppressor and can not be phased

Bingo

 

[Gibby]

Happy its looking to come in over the weekend, and a long one at that for many. So it's easier to get out and enjoy and not having to worry about work.

 

[jrips27]

Someone is going to get a foot on a NAM run in the next couple of days

 

[FoothillsWX]

I get so sick of seeing climo favored regions like eastern NC always scoring

 

[weather nerd]

Eh nam would have brought the cutoff way inland, not what I wanna see at this leadtime

 

[packfan98]

Eh nam would have brought the cutoff way inland, not what I wanna see at this leadtime

That was a pretty positive tilt at the end. I think the jury is still out for a couple of more days.

 

[Parker]

I’d be a nervous damn wreck sitting in the good spot right now, especially after Webbers post. Wax the sleds central Alabama. I’d take another January 2014 all day long but we may have a higher boom potential.

 

[superjames1992]

I guess it’s about time I start paying attention to this one? Moyock may score again!

 

[jrips27]

Once we get the synoptic details pinned down this thing is probably going to shift north and west, and possibly a good bit at that, even down to the 0 hour.

Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection

Webb just fanning the I-85 weenie dreams this morning

 

[Parker]

Hope my lawnmower will crank! Yard gonna look like a damn brown putting green before this

 

[GaStorm]

The coastal storm last year was a different scenario due to the insanely negative AO which isn't as negative this go around. Hoping for more widespread snow further north this time.

 

[ForsythSnow]

The coastal storm last year was a different scenario due to the insanely negative AO which isn't as negative this go around. Hoping for more widespread snow further north this time.

Same here. We got screwed out of the heavier axis both times last year. Hoping it gets further NW.

 

[DopplerWx]

The usual trolls coming out of their caves now that we have a storm to track

 

[SimeonNC]

Thought posting this might be appropriate given the mood.

 

[Mitch West]

Well at least multiple options are back on the table. Could snow at my house or it could trend so far NW that it becomes a snowstorm for the mountains, then i'll drive up there lol.. Or I reckon we could go back to dry. OPTIONS!

 

[SimeonNC]

I'm trying so hard not to get too excited for this because I feel like the next run of literally any model can end up being a huge rug pull and it trends back to nothing again.

I would honestly rather have my house be in the sleet zone than have this trend to nothing, because at least there would be a storm.

 

[weather nerd]

Well at least multiple options are back on the table. Could snow at my house or it could trend so far NW that it becomes a snowstorm for the mountains, then i'll drive up there lol.. Or I reckon we could go back to dry. OPTIONS!

i think we are sitting okay; i'd be worried if i was sc coast right now. im thinking i20 north, as usual this time around

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

I hate a moving goalpost, but that’s how we roll


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[SnowNiner]

Here is the Euro run...I gotta think there are limitations on how far NW this can go. This is all northern stream, moving at a steady pace (not slow). We're not looking at some big stream phasing situation. The wave would need to slow down and really consolidate a lot of vorticity in the base of the trough, and tilt positive to neutral to negative fairly quickly. Think something like the UKMet is possible, but not thinking this can go wildly NW. No one knows at this juncture, but I think the weaker coastal scraper is just as likely as something well inland

View attachment 183181

Agree with grit's sentiment here, not sure how much more this can crank, and with the ensembles looking how they do (I know they keep ticking) my guess is this still ends up being an eastern NC scraper / 95 east. Hope Raleigh and east can rage this weekend.

Holy trends this morning

Also here is my beautiful CAD storm

I want this one. Good old fashioned CAD/gulf low winter storm. Next 2 weeks will be fun, and hopefully CLT/Upstate get crushed.

 

[a_gilmore88]

Hard to hate the trends if you’re along the I-85 corridor in NC. Hoping we can stay west of the inevitable sleet zone, but at this point I wouldn’t even care if we got sleet. I am desperate for any type of winter weather or storm.