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Pattern January Joke

iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
No this is a good trend for Western sections. Primarily because you don't want to trend too amped too soon otherwise you'll get ridged out. Perfect placement right now imo
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I am afraid this isn’t going to work for the Alabama people or anyone west of the apps
 
Keep tilting and moving that energy SW for now. We can worry about those consequences later. Plenty of time for the precip shield to expand later. Starting to look like less of a primary coastal setup after those 00z runs which is good for western sections (for now). Keep this up and the warm nose is going to be our next worry/topic of interest
 
NBAcentel said:
Thing thing is a few ticks away from a big dawg. Not even scraping at the pot anymore. We are scraping for a +13000 sports betting ticket that’s relying on the last leg, on 4 more assists from lamelo ball, at halftime pending 2 quarters
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In your opinion what is the ceiling for this type of event?
 
NBAcentel said:
Starting to see the warm air advection at 850-700mb show up as this thing slows. That by itself typically pushes up Nw zones some View attachment 183172View attachment 183173
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It's nice to see the Western Piedmont in the deep cold 700/850s, gives us a lot a wiggle room for NW trends without the warm nose becoming an issue.

Though personally I'd take a classic snow-to-mix NC storm at this point.
 
GaWx said:
Considering there’s still 4.5 days to go, I’d be surprised based on a combo of climo that says that snow in the deep SE is pretty rare and model biases/trends when no -NAO if the common NW trend doesn’t take my and other deep SE areas out of snow within a few runs. But you never know, which makes these discussions so fascinating.
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But not yet!
IMG_7053.png
 
Here is the Euro run...I gotta think there are limitations on how far NW this can go. This is all northern stream, moving at a steady pace (not slow). We're not looking at some big stream phasing situation. The wave would need to slow down and really consolidate a lot of vorticity in the base of the trough, and tilt positive to neutral to negative fairly quickly. Think something like the UKMet is possible, but not thinking this can go wildly NW. No one knows at this juncture, but I think the weaker coastal scraper is just as likely as something well inland

Jan 13 Euro 500.gif
 
jrips27 said:
Nothing crazy but it was a slight improvement
View attachment 183186
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Thanks, yeah it was skewed slightly by some of the heavier members, but the footprint still looks good. We’re starting to get in the wheelhouse of the Euro/UKMET, so it will be interesting to see how things play out with this setup.


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Per GEFS and EPS, I’d say east of I-85 is solidly in the game Sunday. I really like where the triangle sits at this stage. There is still wiggle room for central NC so we won’t be relying on heavy north or south trends. Still 5 days out but seeing the ensembles cooking what the ops put out hasn’t happened with any storms yet this year especially inside day 5. Plenty of time for unhappy trends but man what a pretty overnight suite of model runs
 
bd6a033c30e01b19a89bf2fcdb50c73e.png

WPC official discussion from 1:52 am for the weekend system


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