Meoscale Discussion 2134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019
Areas affected...central North Carolina into Virginia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 687...688...
Valid 312236Z - 010030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 687, 688 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes is expected to increase over the next several hours from North Carolina into Virginia.
DISCUSSION...Storms continue to develop near the cold front, most notably over central SC and now into central NC. Here, warmer surface temperatures exist which is helping low-level instability and reducing minor levels of convective inhibition. Wind profiles across the region are strong, with the greatest 0-1 SRH from north-central NC into VA. Here, values are exceeding 300 m2/s2, which is quite favorable for tornadoes.
Strong low-level mean winds will aid downdraft production, with swaths of damaging winds expected as these storms move rapidly northeast. While storms will be focused along the cold front, typically favoring QLCS, deep-layer shear is oriented such that solated, individual supercells will be possible, with a threat of tornadoes. Severe storms developing over NC will move into southern VA this evening, with a continued tornado threat.