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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

Avalanche said:
Wonder if anyone east of the Triad/Albemarle area should still be paying attention.
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I think there’s a chance we could get a glaze, but seems like it’s going to be a nonevent out our way. Even if there is some initial ZR, it seems unlikely to last long. Durham County is now technically under a WWA, but my point forecast just has rain in the forecast right now... Oh well, I don’t get much satisfaction out of freezing rain, anyways. Sleet would be nice, though.
 
Avalanche said:
Folks its not that sophisticated. Just look upstream and see what the surface temps and dews are doing.
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Yep my dp is 30+ right now. It if it’s gonna over perform it’s not gonna be wetbulbing with a lot of ice it’s gonna be in the sleet department.
 
superjames1992 said:
I think there’s a chance we could get a glaze, but seems like it’s going to be a nonevent out our way. Even if there is some initial ZR, it seems unlikely to last long. Durham County is now technically under a WWA, but my point forecast just has rain in the forecast right now... Oh well, I don’t get much satisfaction out of freezing rain, anyways. Sleet would be nice, though.
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Us Chatham Co. folk are more desperate. If its frozen, we'll take it.
 
Stephenb888 said:
(I’m referring to upstate Sc when I ask this question) Just out of curiosity has there ever been an event where the forecast was completely wrong? Like calling for rain and nothing more and it ended up getting way colder than expected and we got winter weather? I know the models are usually not far off but do they ever bust big?
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I can’t speak for the upstate but for the Charlotte area, and example of that would be January 1987. The NWS and local mets in Charlotte both called for the snow line to be well northwest of the city (pretty much a cold rain with snow confined to the mountains and foothills). Oddly enough Accuweather did the forecast for most of the local radio stations then and Joe Bastardi did the weather on air... he said the snow line would be southeast of the city and Charlotte would be in on the heavy snow. JB was right and the local mets were wrong as Charlotte ended up 7 inches from that storm
 
JHS said:
Too many times to count. The 2 biggest being in 1987. On 1-22-1987 it was supposed to be 90% rain south of highway 11. Much of the area got from 5-12 inches of snow from that. In Feb 1987 it was supposed to be all rain with a high around 40. What we got was 1-2 inches of sleet with temps going down into the mid 20's.
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That was a long time ago. 2000 was also a failure. These models are no great and suck past 5 days. But that kind of failure now is unlikely. And even if it did it'd be ZR. No chance at all for snow here.
 
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