• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

We are lucky to have an easier forecast of just a little ice and cold rain. Imagine being north in central and northern Virginia trying to predict snow amounts with this huge ass warm nose. I would have a headache trying to do maps up there.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
We are lucky to have an easier forecast of just a little ice and cold rain. Imagine being north in central and northern Virginia trying to predict snow amounts with this huge ass warm nose. I would have a headache trying to do maps up there.
Click to expand...

Predicting snow amounts with a big warm nose? That's an easy one, take the warmest model and run w/ it, you're usually right.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
RGEM is ALWAYS over done on Ice totals. But usually does a pretty good job on where the ice will be.
And yes hard to bet against the NAM temp profiles, but in this case It’s just like NCSNOW said LP placement is the difference with the temps.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
BirdManDoomW said:
We are lucky to have an easier forecast of just a little ice and cold rain. Imagine being north in central and northern Virginia trying to predict snow amounts with this huge ass warm nose. I would have a headache trying to do maps up there.
Click to expand...
Lol
 
I’d say our best sign will be this evening. I’d love to see clear skies and get some good radiational cooling. Crossing below freezing by around midnight would be great. Dew points in the mid-20s (even pretty far upstream) aren’t going to help a whole lot in the wet bulb department. If we can trend even just a degree or two cooler than forecasted, we’d be looking at upper-20s wet bulbs instead of near-30 wet bulbs. I suppose model trends today will be interesting as well, but to me, this is going to turn into a nowcasting scenario pretty quickly, and every degree counts!
 
SD said:
If you live in the CAD regions and want an ice storm better hope the HRRR is underestimating the cold dry push. The 3k looked better but was still underwhelming.
Click to expand...
That is weird, considering the HRRR consistently keeps having the high near the U.S border.
 
Lowtown said:
I’d say our best sign will be this evening. I’d love to see clear skies and get some good radiational cooling. Crossing below freezing by around midnight would be great. Dew points in the mid-20s (even pretty far upstream) aren’t going to help a whole lot in the wet bulb department. If we can trend even just a degree or two cooler than forecasted, we’d be looking at upper-20s wet bulbs instead of near-30 wet bulbs. I suppose model trends today will be interesting as well, but to me, this is going to turn into a nowcasting scenario pretty quickly, and every degree counts!
Click to expand...
THIS. It's getting near the radar watching and dew/temp monitoring time.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I think the freezing rain accumulation maps were on the low end because the majority of the run was sleet. And a bunch of it.
Click to expand...
Wouldn't be surprised close to the mountains where the 925 flow can stay tapped to the NE and continue the cold dry feed. Not sure if below freezing from say 900/925 to sfc is enough for sleet but many areas are below freezing at 925 through 18z tomorrow
 
SimeonNC said:
That is weird, considering the HRRR consistently keeps having the high near the U.S border.
Click to expand...
There's some interesting things going on with the low level winds to our north. A lot of models are veering sfc winds east across PA/Maryland toward the inverted trough and parent sfc low which would interrupt the higher quality cold/dry feed
 
Is the HRRR reliable when it comes to stuff like placement of high pressures because it has consistently been having the high pressure near the U.S border
 
SD said:
There's some interesting things going on with the low level winds to our north. A lot of models are veering sfc winds east across PA/Maryland toward the inverted trough and parent sfc low which would interrupt the higher quality cold/dry feed
Click to expand...
That's interesting. I keep wondering why there isn't a stronger feed of cold dry air based on the setup. This is not insitu-cad, and the HP is pretty locked in compared to many systems we track. My brain keeps telling me that the surface temps should respond on the modeling and tick down in successive model suites as the storm draws closer. Any reasons to why the winds are wonky? @Webberweather53 do you have any ideas?
 
Jessy89 said:
Pickens county sc just called off school tomorrow. Digital learning day for what will likely be a cold rain
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yep snow day canceled for north west nc it’s all virtual learning lmao. Sucks to be them. But prob save lives even in cold rain can be slick.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top