Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Goodness, the 3k NAM goes bonkers. 1.61 of freezing rain at Boone.

 

[SimeonNC]

Honestly the HRRR kinda scares me lol, a strong high near the U.S border and the fact that temps around CLT are borderline makes me wonder.

 

[iGRXY]

If the Nam is even just 2 degrees too warm at the surface you're going to see a crazy bust.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

If the Nam is even just 2 degrees too warm at the surface you're going to see a crazy bust.

This NAM run puts northern Greenville and NW pickens in play for sure, at face value.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

There’s no telling what the RGEM will print out here in a few.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

NWS Blacksburg has not once called for any significant ice here. And the WPC has dropped the moderate risk for ice. I guess I’m gonna go with them saying 1-2” snow and then sleet to cut slash ZR totals down to just a trace. Let’s see what happens the models are surely wrong in Boone too it’s prob more snow there IMO. Their warning says up to 5”. ?

 

[jjwxman]

If the Nam is even just 2 degrees too warm at the surface you're going to see a crazy bust.

I'm sitting 15 miles south of Greensboro... preparing myself for 32.8 and rain. Lol

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Interesting we have been talking ice for many days (like 7). But the public receives a snow/sleet message with just a trace of ice from the national weather service. I can’t blame them you know they don’t look at any model guidance like we do. Kinda goes to show that these extreme ice maps that rarely verify are not even being considered by the national weather service up this way. Over 0.5” to 1.0” of ice but the forecast is for less than 0.1” for many.

 

[Clem282340]

This looks like a non event here in the upstate sc

 

[Stephenb888]

Correct. Never is.

This looks like a non event here in the upstate sc

 

[Webberweather53]

Apparently some forecasters and weenies in the mid-Atlantic think Philly will stay all snow.

Meanwhile, you have area-averaged NAM soundings like this where the hodograph is going off the screen and there's insane deep-layer veering w/ 80 KT southwesterlies above 700mb

 

[SimeonNC]

HRRR keeps having the high close to the U.S border lol

 

[SimeonNC]

 

[BirdManDoomW]

My final call. Red dots (Virginia escarpment)
Up to 0.25” of ice. Pink (Watauga through Surry) 0.1” of ice. Orange (Hickory to Winston) 0.05” of ice. Blue (CAD zones of Georgia, South Carolina, Mooresville NC) a light glaze then cold ass rain. Reasoning...all zones could see sleet cut into ice totals with areas along and above Highway 421 seeing over half inch of sleet. Snow will will also be across the mtns and northern foothills where a dusting to 4” could occur. Mount Airy has the biggest chance outside of the mountains to see over 1” of snow! Elsewhere it’s too warm and unfavorable mixing for significant ice storm sorry.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 57836

Icon just popped a 1038 a little bit north of there.

 

[SD]

Current dew points let's see where they are this afternoon

 

[jackendrickwx]

Interesting note from GSP. It is going to be really close for some folks

 

[SimeonNC]

The RGEM is also further south was the high pressure compared to 06z

Edit: NVM it moved back into the same place

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Icon colder compared to 6Z. Actually bends up popping a 1039. Leads me to continue to think the NAM is not done trending colder.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Lol you know it’s over for you when you’re south of the RGEM