Well then
..Eastern North Carolina...
Due to lingering spread among the output of the various models, the
extent of severe weather potential for Wednesday remains at least
somewhat unclear. It still appears that the track of the deepening
surface cyclone may allow for at least a weakly destabilizing warm
sector boundary layer to overspread the Outer and Inner Banks
vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. If this occurs, deep-layer wind
fields and shear probably will become sufficiently strong to support
a risk for organized severe convection.
The 15/00Z NAM forecast soundings for the Morehead City and Cape
Hatteras vicinities (around the 16/21-23Z time frame) exhibit wind
profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and very large
clockwise curved low-level hodographs, which appear favorable for
supercells capable of producing a strong tornado. Output from other
models doesn't appear quite as favorable, but this will be monitored
in later outlooks for this time period.