It’s probably linked to the 5”+ of snow they got today. That can lead to meso high development.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
chase5ash
Member
Living in the far Northeast metro Atlanta for all of my life, these CAD events always seem to be 2-3 degrees colder than forecasted. I don’t know if this applies elsewhere, but it’s always something I keep in mind.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Across the board increase in freezing rain on the RGEM. Holds the wedge longer.
Better hopes it melts before Thursday because euro is statewide 40 to 50+ winds. Imagine heavy ice on trees and wind. Of course it’s not likely tho. Even 30mph could do damage.
Old map 
<
Here is my new updated and 2nd call map (3rd call is my last
I did back off a bit due to warmer trends over the last 24 hours, however I do keep fringe areas from a T-0.05, just in case, all it takes is some drizzle and 32 degrees, did take CLT out the mix
The worst areas IMO will be around Wilkes around @BirdManDoomW And here is where I think there is some potential for the wedge to Hold a bit longer, areas around Salisbury/LKN/Shelby did go down a little bit, in this situation don’t look at the high end numbers, look at the low end as that’s your most likely
<Here is my new updated and 2nd call map (3rd call is my last
I did back off a bit due to warmer trends over the last 24 hours, however I do keep fringe areas from a T-0.05, just in case, all it takes is some drizzle and 32 degrees, did take CLT out the mix
The worst areas IMO will be around Wilkes around @BirdManDoomW And here is where I think there is some potential for the wedge to Hold a bit longer, areas around Salisbury/LKN/Shelby did go down a little bit, in this situation don’t look at the high end numbers, look at the low end as that’s your most likely
SimeonNC
Member
I suck at drawing call maps so I apologize if it looks weird but here are my thoughts rn.
Pink Area: Trace-.1 ZR accretion
Purple: .1-.2 ZR accretion
Red: .2-.25 ZR accretion
Blue: ZR mixed with IP and possibly snow in the onset(especially in the higher elevations) At least .1 in ZR accretion
Pink Area: Trace-.1 ZR accretion
Purple: .1-.2 ZR accretion
Red: .2-.25 ZR accretion
Blue: ZR mixed with IP and possibly snow in the onset(especially in the higher elevations) At least .1 in ZR accretion
SimeonNC
Member
With the HP trending stronger and the h5 seemingly trending more in a favor of a strong CAD so I'm sort of bullish for the Foothills and Western/Northwestern Piedmont. I have a low ice accretion forecast for the blue areas because I do think there might be more in the way of IP or even snow mixing in early on for the northern areas and high elevation places.
Downeastnc
Member
Well then
..Eastern North Carolina...
Due to lingering spread among the output of the various models, the
extent of severe weather potential for Wednesday remains at least
somewhat unclear. It still appears that the track of the deepening
surface cyclone may allow for at least a weakly destabilizing warm
sector boundary layer to overspread the Outer and Inner Banks
vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. If this occurs, deep-layer wind
fields and shear probably will become sufficiently strong to support
a risk for organized severe convection.
The 15/00Z NAM forecast soundings for the Morehead City and Cape
Hatteras vicinities (around the 16/21-23Z time frame) exhibit wind
profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and very large
clockwise curved low-level hodographs, which appear favorable for
supercells capable of producing a strong tornado. Output from other
models doesn't appear quite as favorable, but this will be monitored
in later outlooks for this time period.
..Eastern North Carolina...
Due to lingering spread among the output of the various models, the
extent of severe weather potential for Wednesday remains at least
somewhat unclear. It still appears that the track of the deepening
surface cyclone may allow for at least a weakly destabilizing warm
sector boundary layer to overspread the Outer and Inner Banks
vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. If this occurs, deep-layer wind
fields and shear probably will become sufficiently strong to support
a risk for organized severe convection.
The 15/00Z NAM forecast soundings for the Morehead City and Cape
Hatteras vicinities (around the 16/21-23Z time frame) exhibit wind
profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and very large
clockwise curved low-level hodographs, which appear favorable for
supercells capable of producing a strong tornado. Output from other
models doesn't appear quite as favorable, but this will be monitored
in later outlooks for this time period.
SimeonNC
Member
I feel like all strong winter storms produce at least some severe weather on the warm side.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah its probably going to be limited to Hwy 17 and east in NC ( immediate coastal areas) but any shift west in track could put more of the I 95 corridor under threat.....the 06Z NAM was still showing STP in the 4-6 range over the IBX/OBX
Both NAMs were much warmer.....
SimeonNC
Member
Yeah, wtf. There doesn't seem to be a noticeable difference with the high placement and strength.
SimeonNC
Member
If the RGEM holds serve then something is up.
SimeonNC
Member
I'm so fricking confused rn, stronger CAD push yet it's several degrees warmer at the surface than previous runs.
Maybe there’s a cold bias in the longer range ? Idek
RGEM went bonkers this run with ZR 
SimeonNC
Member
I'm gonna say that the NAM might be too warm.