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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Started at 57, dense Fog, It's burned off in the last hour, Calm winds...
currently 66F, Forecast high of 74F..
 
Looks like we might have a quick shot at some severe t'storms over the next few hours.

Meanwhile, current temp is 73*F.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Looks like we might have a quick shot at some severe t'storms over the next few hours.

Meanwhile, current temp is 73*F.
Click to expand...

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Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Areas affected...northeast Texas through southeast Oklahoma and
southwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 281559Z - 281730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity by late morning into the afternoon. Primary threats will
be isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts, though a tornado or
two will also be possible. A WW will likely be needed before 17Z.

DISCUSSION...As of mid morning a cold front extends from eastern OK
through north central and west central TX. An isolated thunderstorm
with mid-level updraft rotation has developed on the front and is
located just east of Gainesville with another isolated storm near
Mineral Wells. The downstream warm sector is already moderately
unstable with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE supported by upper 60s F
dewpoints and 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Further
destabilization will occur, but will be limited to some degree by
widespread multi-layer clouds. Weak, progressive impulses embedded
within the southwesterly upper flow regime and forcing along the
cold front will contribute to an increase in thunderstorm coverage
later this morning as the boundary layer slowly warms. The primary
low-level jet has shifted east of this region resulting in small 0-1
km hodographs. However, a belt of strong southwesterly winds
increasing to around 70 kt at 500 mb resides above the warm sector
and is contributing to 60+ kt effective bulk shear. Therefore, some
storms should organize with supercells and bowing segments likely,
eventually consolidating into a dominant linear mode. Large hail and
isolated damaging wind will be the main threats. The small low-level
hodographs should tend to limit overall tornado threat. However, a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

..Dial/Hart.. 02/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32559772 33599665 34899484 34329358 31909679 31859817
32559772
 
Noon was already up to 81 at KSAV. As is no surprise, the NWS bumped up the highs for the next two days as models have been too cold. Going for mid 80s for today, which would put it near yesterday’s 86, and low 80s tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have another mid 80s tomorrow. Then Tuesday thankfully much cooler arrives.
 
70s in about half of wake county then 60s around airport of course . They picked that airport on purpose , to have the cooled snowiest possible averages lol. Mid 60s here but mid 70s 10 minute drive from my house . Still think we get 70s but man it’s pushing 80 in Fayetteville wtf man. What is it with CAD, the foothills have 0 CAD but places further from the mountains do . Also think tomorrow has big over performing potential as is typical in these setups .
 
Seeing upper 60s just 2 miles south of airport . So it’s eroding fast rn at least as warm front is north of us now .
 
Asheville hit 70s in January and now they may get mid 70s today. This year is definitely unusual. 850s support some 80s in the lowlands if it’s mid 70s in Asheville today. Of course CAD has been incredibly potent this year as well.
 
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