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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

I’m not sold on icons solution. I do think there will be a system Friday or Saturday next week. It might be rain that’s what needs ironing out rain snow ice? Let’s see what gfs shows soon


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Jessy89 said:
I’m not sold on icons solution. I do think there will be a system Friday or Saturday next week. It might be rain that’s what needs ironing out rain snow ice? Let’s see what gfs shows soon


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The icon shows a storm. It's just a rain storm and snow for va
 
Gfs has snow on NC coast Friday morning. Not that great of a run this go around


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ATLwxfan said:
We only seem to cite the icon when in disagrees with the GFS


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Icon has been decent this year. I’ll admit I never really paid attention to it in the past. It’s always been the gfs euro cmc for me. However models have been horrible this year mostly


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GaSnowhound said:
Bring it! We’re running out of time it feels like.
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Hey Atlwx, would you mind mentioning what details re projected pattern lead to the idea of being a “perfect set up”? I’m trying to understand some of the other variables in process outside of “Lanina phase 7 etc”. TIA
 
This winter is giving me 2010-2011 vibes, other then the snow and cold completely avoiding the southeast, hopefully spring doesn’t follow
 
GaSnowhound said:
Hey Atlwx, would you mind mentioning what details re projected pattern lead to the idea of being a “perfect set up”? I’m trying to understand some of the other variables in process outside of “Lanina phase 7 etc”. TIA
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I’m a doctor not a meteorologist so I’m not the best person to explain it. Nice suppressed storm track with a gulf low and a big high over NE. Hopefully that bowling ball drops into Texas and stays nice and cold as it slides East. With marginal temps it’ll thread the line between heavy rain or snow. The whole “cooling the column” bit. There’s my awful explanation. Feel free to roll your eyes and toss.


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We have had plenty of rain for NC this winter. We have had plenty of cold temps, too. Just not cold enough for snow around my area except for the one storm in January. We have had a couple of freezing rain events since then. We have been so close to getting a good snow storm here. We just need it to be a couple of degrees colder than it has been when we get the precip. Maybe the storm next Friday will finally be the payoff for all the precip and close calls we have had here this winter.
 
I just saw the Euro run had a good snow storm here for Friday. The GFS backed off from yesterday's awesome run. But I think there is a strong storm signal. Just looking at this from a layman's view, we have seen this dance before, where one model shows a storm, then backs off, while another model that wasn't showing anything before starts to show a storm, too. This back and forth is usually a good signal in my opinion. A lot better than just one model showing anything. Usually when we have this back and forth dance it ends up being a legit threat.
 
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