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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

ATLwxfan said:
I really think we ride the ensembles like a hot craps table.


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'Tis the nature of this hobby. Hug what you love, toss & trash what you don't.

That torch in GA & The Carolinas on the 12z goof tho....

We can only ride on the fact that this is still nearly a week out and that models have a really tough time with shallow layers of cold air.
 
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_32.png
Round 2
 
Cmc not as suppress. I could easily see the gfs trend back the good. Especially round 2
 
I swear some of these model timings are off as much as 30hrs it seems. Somebody is not going to be right here.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
'Tis the nature of this hobby. Hug what you love, toss & trash what you don't.

That torch in GA & The Carolinas on the 12z goof tho....

We can only ride on the fact that this is still nearly a week out and that models have a really tough time with shallow layers of cold air.
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Sure we do that to an extent but the science happens to be on our side here. The ensembles are a better way to filter out the noise of a fluctuating forecast.


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CaryWx said:
I swear some of these model timings are off as much as 30hrs it seems. Somebody is not going to be right here.
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This is the problem models have when there is this much energy flying around. Different models are going to latch onto different pieces and thus wildly different solutions. I’m honestly beginning to wonder if there might not actually be a February 2014 type set up here for the the Carolinas and Northern GA... perhaps a wave coming through as the cold is getting settled across the region followed by larger system 18-24 hours later. Some of the ensemble members appear to be wanting to bring through multiple waves
 
CMC would keep SE Louisiana in the deep freezer Thursday night through Monday, at least, with a few rounds of freezing rain and sleet. I can just imagine the power outages that would result from that much ice for so long.
 
Does anyone have the map for the freezing rain from the GFS?

Edit: I found it. Pretty significant ice storm across my area.
 
CaryWx said:
I swear some of these model timings are off as much as 30hrs it seems. Somebody is not going to be right here.
Click to expand...

I am kind of ok with this, it seems like every time the models lock in on a big snowstorm for us in the 4-8 day range it never ever pans out.....I want the Euro ENS to have the storm fairly consistently from days 4-8, seeing the GFS have big jumps run to run in this range is almost normal and expected in typical SE snowstorm evolution.....then you want the GFS to cave and come back from being all over the place in the last 2-4 days.....and it often does....I also think when the GFS and Euro agree in the 8-10 day range they usually end up back pretty close to that agreement in the 1-3 day range.....after being all over the place days 4-8. I hope that is how this plays out this time cause the potential this go around is for some places to see epic even historical kind of outputs.....
 
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